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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Septemvri Sofia

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2–1After extra time
Septemvri Sofia

Cup · SAT 17 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 Septemvri Sofia SEPTEMVRI SOFIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Septemvri Sofia win46%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.801
The market’s Brier score0.892

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. It finished 2–1 after extra time.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Septemvri Sofia win at 46%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Septemvri Sofia 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 27–28–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Septemvri Sofia
  4. 23′Septemvri Sofia find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–18–75
  5. 23′We said Septemvri Sofia at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 8–18–75
  6. 23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 0–1 Septemvri Sofia
  7. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Septemvri Sofia win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 7–18–75
  9. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Septemvri Sofia win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 0–1 Septemvri Sofia
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 0–1 Septemvri Sofia
  12. 56′We said Septemvri Sofia at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
  13. 70′We said Septemvri Sofia at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  14. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Septemvri Sofia win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
  15. 79′We said Septemvri Sofia at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  16. 85′We said Septemvri Sofia at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  17. 86′A goal for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa on 86′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 5–88–7
  18. 86′We said Septemvri Sofia at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 5–88–7
  19. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 Septemvri Sofia
  20. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Septemvri Sofia win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
  21. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Septemvri Sofia win 7%)
  22. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Septemvri Sofia win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  23. 90′We said Septemvri Sofia at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–92–4
  24. 95′Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa score on 94′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 74–21–5
  25. 95′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa likeliest at 74%. 2–1 · 74–21–5
  26. 95′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 74–21–5
  27. 95′⚽ GOAL · 94' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–1 Septemvri Sofia
  28. 102′Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa score on 94′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
  29. 102′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa likeliest at 79%. 2–1 · 79–18–3
  30. 103′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 80–17–2
  31. 128′Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa score on 94′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  32. 128′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa likeliest at 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  33. 128′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  34. 145′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 97%. 1–1 · 1–97–2
  35. FTFULL TIME Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–1 Septemvri Sofia after extra time
  36. FTLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 Septemvri Sofia after 90 minutes, as graded · Septemvri Sofia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Sofia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 27%, draw 28%, Septemvri Sofia 46%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Septemvri SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win27%
Draw28%
Septemvri Sofia win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Septemvri Sofia

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri sofia winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:31 · locked at kick-off
46% The market54%
Us46%
Market54%

We make Septemvri Sofia a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Septemvri Sofia1.00 – 1.40
The market · Septemvri Sofia win54% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 12:29
Our probability · Septemvri Sofia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win27%21%+6
Draw28%25%+3
Septemvri Sofia win46%54%−8
Over 2.5 goals43%50%−7
Both teams to score48%51%−3
Over 1.5 goals70%73%−3
Over 3.5 goals22%30%−8
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw54%46%+8
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa clean sheet25%––
Septemvri Sofia clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%
0123450 9.4 12.2 8.9 4.1 1 8.6 13.1 8.9 4.2 2 4.5 6.4 4.5 2.1 3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa down, Septemvri Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Oct

LOKOMOTIV G. ORYAHOVITSA

W3–1

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA

No matches in our record yet.