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Fratria v Botev Vratsa

Fratria
1–2Full time
Botev Vratsa

Cup · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Fratria 1–2 Botev Vratsa BOTEV VRATSA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Botev Vratsa win35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.627

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Botev Vratsa win at 35%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Botev Vratsa 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 34–30–35
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Fratria v Botev Vratsa
  4. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Botev Vratsa win 32%)
  5. 36′Botev Vratsa find the net on 36′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–70
  6. 36′We said Botev Vratsa at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 8–21–70
  7. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Fratria 0–1 Botev Vratsa
  8. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Botev Vratsa win: 35% at kick-off, 70% now
  9. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Botev Vratsa win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 21%)
  10. 37′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
  11. 45′A goal for Fratria on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–44–28
  12. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Fratria 1–1 Botev Vratsa
  13. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Botev Vratsa win: 35% at kick-off, 28% now
  14. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Botev Vratsa win 28%)
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Fratria 1–1 Botev Vratsa
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Fratria 1–1 Botev Vratsa
  17. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Botev Vratsa win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
  18. 59′We said Botev Vratsa at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–54–23
  19. 67′We said Botev Vratsa at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
  20. 73′A goal for Botev Vratsa on 73′. 1–1 · 15–69–16
  21. 73′We said Botev Vratsa at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
  22. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Fratria 1–2 Botev Vratsa
  23. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Botev Vratsa win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
  24. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Botev Vratsa win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
  25. 74′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–13–85
  26. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Botev Vratsa win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
  27. 80′We said Botev Vratsa at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  28. 87′We said Botev Vratsa at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  29. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Botev Vratsa win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
  30. 90′1–2 at the end. Our 35% on Botev Vratsa comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  31. FTFULL TIME Fratria 1–2 Botev Vratsa
  32. FTFratria 1–2 Botev Vratsa · Botev Vratsa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Botev Vratsa just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fratria 35%, draw 30%, Botev Vratsa 35%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Fratria v Botev VratsaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fratria win35%
Draw30%
Botev Vratsa win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fratria

Botev Vratsa

9Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 14 Oct · Pro Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · botev vratsa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
35% The market–
Us35%

We make Botev Vratsa a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Fratria v Botev Vratsa1.09 – 1.11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 12:53
Our probability · Botev Vratsa win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Fratria win35%––
Draw30%––
Botev Vratsa win35%––
Over 2.5 goals38%––
Both teams to score45%––
Over 1.5 goals65%––
Over 3.5 goals18%––
Fratria or draw65%––
Fratria clean sheet33%––
Botev Vratsa clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%
0123450 11.5 11.8 6.8 2.5 1 11.7 13.8 7.4 2.7 2 6.6 7.3 4.1 3 2.4 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Fratria down, Botev Vratsa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 3 Oct

FRATRIA

W3–0

BOTEV VRATSA

No matches in our record yet.