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Etar Veliko Tarnovo v Spartak Varna

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2–4Full time
Spartak Varna

Cup · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–4 Spartak Varna SPARTAK VARNA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Spartak Varna win49%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.388
The market’s Brier score0.421

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Varna win at 49%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Spartak Varna was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 26–25–49
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Etar Veliko Tarnovo v Spartak Varna
  4. 22′Etar Veliko Tarnovo score on 22′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 55–25–21
  5. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1–0 Spartak Varna
  6. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Spartak Varna win: 49% at kick-off, 21% now
  7. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Etar Veliko Tarnovo win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Spartak Varna win 45%)
  8. 23′We said Spartak Varna at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 55–25–20
  9. 26′We said Spartak Varna at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
  10. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Spartak Varna win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  11. 28′Etar Veliko Tarnovo find the net on 28′. 2–0. 2–0 · 81–13–6
  12. 28′We said Spartak Varna at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 2–0 · 81–13–6
  13. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–0 Spartak Varna
  14. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Spartak Varna win: 49% at kick-off, 6% now
  15. 38′We said Spartak Varna at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 84–11–4
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–0 Spartak Varna
  17. 45′SECOND HALF Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–0 Spartak Varna
  18. 52′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 89–8–2
  19. 64′A goal for Spartak Varna on 64′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 71–23–6
  20. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–1 Spartak Varna
  21. 65′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 71–23–6
  22. 68′Spartak Varna score on 68′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 17–56–27
  23. 68′We said Spartak Varna at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 2–2 · 17–56–27
  24. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–2 Spartak Varna
  25. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Spartak Varna win: 49% at kick-off, 27% now
  26. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Etar Veliko Tarnovo win 73%)
  27. 69′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 17–58–26
  28. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Spartak Varna win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  29. 81′We said Spartak Varna at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 9–77–14
  30. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Spartak Varna win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  31. 86′Spartak Varna find the net on 86′. 2–2 · 6–86–8
  32. 86′We published Spartak Varna at 49%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–3 · 0–5–94
  33. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–3 Spartak Varna
  34. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Spartak Varna win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
  35. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Spartak Varna win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 86%)
  36. 87′We published Spartak Varna at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  37. 87′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  38. 90′Full time, 2–4. We called Spartak Varna at 49% — that one lands. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  39. 94′A goal for Spartak Varna on 90′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  40. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Spartak Varna win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  41. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–4 Spartak Varna
  42. FTFULL TIME Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–4 Spartak Varna
  43. FTEtar Veliko Tarnovo 2–4 Spartak Varna · Spartak Varna win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Varna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 26%, draw 25%, Spartak Varna 49%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Etar Veliko Tarnovo v Spartak VarnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Etar Veliko Tarnovo win26%
Draw25%
Spartak Varna win49%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Spartak Varna

10Days since last match9

Last match: 9 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak varna winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
49% The market47%
Us49%
Market47%

We make Spartak Varna a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Etar Veliko Tarnovo v Spartak Varna1.14 – 1.66
The market · Spartak Varna win47% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 13 OCT 05:5319 OCT 16:47
Our probability · Spartak Varna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Etar Veliko Tarnovo win26%28%−2
Draw25%25%0
Spartak Varna win49%47%+2
Over 2.5 goals53%58%−5
Both teams to score55%62%−7
Over 1.5 goals77%80%−3
Over 3.5 goals31%37%−6
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw51%53%−2
Etar Veliko Tarnovo clean sheet19%––
Spartak Varna clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%
0123450 6.5 9.8 8.4 4.6 1 6.6 11.9 9.6 5.3 2.2 2 3.9 6.5 5.4 3.0 3 2.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Etar Veliko Tarnovo down, Spartak Varna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsETA 1–2 SPA · SPA 3–1 ETA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 3 Oct

ETAR VELIKO TARNOVO

W3–2

SPARTAK VARNA

No matches in our record yet.