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Dobrudzha v Montana

Dobrudzha
2–1Full time
Montana

Cup · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:30
Dobrudzha 2–1 Montana DOBRUDZHA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dobrudzha win44%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.475
The market’s Brier score0.570

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dobrudzha win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Dobrudzha was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dobrudzha v Montana
  4. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Dobrudzha win 38%)
  5. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Dobrudzha win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Dobrudzha 0–0 Montana
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Dobrudzha 0–0 Montana
  8. 46′We said Dobrudzha at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–48–20
  9. 53′We said Dobrudzha at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
  10. 59′Dobrudzha find the net on 59′. 0–0 · 26–57–17
  11. 59′We published Dobrudzha at 44%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  12. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Dobrudzha 1–0 Montana
  13. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Dobrudzha win: 44% at kick-off, 83% now
  14. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Dobrudzha win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 57%)
  15. 60′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  16. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Dobrudzha win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  17. 64′We published Dobrudzha at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  18. 75′A goal for Dobrudzha on 74′. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  19. 75′We published Dobrudzha at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  20. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Dobrudzha win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  21. 83′We said Dobrudzha at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
  22. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Dobrudzha 1–1 Montana
  23. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Dobrudzha win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
  24. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Dobrudzha win 94%)
  25. 84′Montana find the net on 83′. 1–1. 1–1 · 7–88–5
  26. 85′Dobrudzha find the net on 84′. 1–1 · 7–89–4
  27. 85′We published Dobrudzha at 44%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  28. 85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Dobrudzha 2–1 Montana
  29. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Dobrudzha win: 44% at kick-off, 96% now
  30. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Dobrudzha win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 89%)
  31. 86′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  32. 90′Full time, 2–1. We called Dobrudzha at 44% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  33. FTFULL TIME Dobrudzha 2–1 Montana
  34. FTDobrudzha 2–1 Montana · Dobrudzha win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dobrudzha are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dobrudzha 44%, draw 31%, Montana 25%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Dobrudzha v MontanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Dobrudzha win44%
Draw31%
Montana win25%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dobrudzha

Montana

9Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 13 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dobrudzha winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
44% The market38%
Us44%
Market38%

We make Dobrudzha a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dobrudzha v Montana1.16 – 0.80
Form · Cup this season · since 4 OctW1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0
The market · Dobrudzha win38% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 13 OCT 05:5319 OCT 15:45
Our probability · Dobrudzha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dobrudzha win44%38%+6
Draw31%30%+1
Montana win25%32%−7
Over 2.5 goals31%43%−12
Both teams to score37%49%−12
Over 1.5 goals58%67%−9
Over 3.5 goals14%23%−9
Dobrudzha or draw75%68%+7
Dobrudzha clean sheet45%––
Montana clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.1%
0123450 14.6 11.2 4.6 1 16.1 13.0 5.1 2 9.4 7.4 3.0 3 3.7 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dobrudzha down, Montana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.30
Over 2.51 of 10
Both scored2 of 10
Last meetingsMON 1–0 DOB · DOB 1–0 MON · MON 1–0 DOB · MON 1–1 DOB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Oct

DOBRUDZHA

W2–1

MONTANA

D0–0