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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas v Botev Plovdiv

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0–4Full time
Botev Plovdiv

Cup · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–4 Botev Plovdiv BOTEV PLOVDIV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Botev Plovdiv win50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Botev Plovdiv win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Botev Plovdiv 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 24–27–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Chernomorets 1919 Burgas v Botev Plovdiv
  4. 24′A goal for Botev Plovdiv on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–16–77
  5. 24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–1 Botev Plovdiv
  6. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Botev Plovdiv win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
  7. 25′We said Botev Plovdiv at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 7–16–77
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 6–17–77
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–1 Botev Plovdiv
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–1 Botev Plovdiv
  11. 49′We said Botev Plovdiv at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
  12. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Botev Plovdiv win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  13. 51′Botev Plovdiv score on 51′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
  14. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–2 Botev Plovdiv
  15. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Botev Plovdiv win: 50% at kick-off, 96% now
  16. 52′We said Botev Plovdiv at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 0–3–96
  17. 70′Botev Plovdiv find the net on 69′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  18. 70′We said Botev Plovdiv at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  19. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–3 Botev Plovdiv
  20. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Botev Plovdiv win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  21. 71′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  22. 79′A goal for Botev Plovdiv on 79′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  23. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–4 Botev Plovdiv
  24. 80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  25. FTFULL TIME Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–4 Botev Plovdiv
  26. FTChernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–4 Botev Plovdiv · Botev Plovdiv win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Botev Plovdiv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 24%, draw 27%, Botev Plovdiv 50%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas v Botev PlovdivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win24%
Draw27%
Botev Plovdiv win50%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Botev Plovdiv

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 14 Oct · Pro Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · botev plovdiv winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
50% The market–
Us50%

We make Botev Plovdiv a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas v Botev Plovdiv0.97 – 1.52

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 09:44
Our probability · Botev Plovdiv win

Published at 48%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win24%––
Draw27%––
Botev Plovdiv win50%––
Over 2.5 goals46%––
Both teams to score49%––
Over 1.5 goals72%––
Over 3.5 goals24%––
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw50%––
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas clean sheet22%––
Botev Plovdiv clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 8.6 12.2 9.6 4.9 1 7.6 12.6 9.3 4.7 2 3.9 5.9 4.5 2.3 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chernomorets 1919 Burgas down, Botev Plovdiv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Oct

CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS

W2–0

BOTEV PLOVDIV

No matches in our record yet.