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Model 1.2

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Beroe v Ludogorets

Beroe
0–3Full time
Ludogorets

Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42
Beroe 0–3 Ludogorets LUDOGORETS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ludogorets win64%
The market said79%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.200
The market’s Brier score0.073

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ludogorets win at 64%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Ludogorets was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 14–23–64
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Beroe v Ludogorets
  4. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Ludogorets win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
  5. 36′We said Ludogorets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 14–34–52
  6. 42′We said Ludogorets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 14–37–49
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Beroe 0–0 Ludogorets
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Beroe 0–0 Ludogorets
  9. 52′We said Ludogorets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 13–44–44
  10. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Ludogorets win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
  11. 55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 12–46–42
  12. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Ludogorets win 41%)
  13. 59′We said Ludogorets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 12–49–39
  14. 65′We said Ludogorets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 11–55–34
  15. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Ludogorets win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
  16. 66′Ludogorets find the net on 66′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–10–89
  17. 66′We published Ludogorets at 64%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–1 · 1–10–89
  18. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Beroe 0–1 Ludogorets
  19. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Ludogorets win: 64% at kick-off, 89% now
  20. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Ludogorets win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
  21. 68′We published Ludogorets at 64%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  22. 68′A goal for Ludogorets on 68′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  23. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Beroe 0–2 Ludogorets
  24. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Ludogorets win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
  25. 69′We published Ludogorets at 64%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  26. 69′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  27. 71′Ludogorets score on 71′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  28. 71′We published Ludogorets at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  29. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Beroe 0–3 Ludogorets
  30. 72′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  31. 75′A red card for Beroe on 75′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  32. 75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Beroe
  33. FTFULL TIME Beroe 0–3 Ludogorets
  34. FTBeroe 0–3 Ludogorets · Ludogorets win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ludogorets are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Beroe 14%, draw 23%, Ludogorets 64%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Beroe v LudogoretsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Beroe win14%
Draw23%
Ludogorets win64%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beroe

Ludogorets

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 12 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ludogorets winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:53 · locked at kick-off
64% The market79%
Us64%
Market79%

We make Ludogorets a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Beroe v Ludogorets0.67 – 1.79
The market · Ludogorets win79% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 15:15
Our probability · Ludogorets win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Beroe win14%6%+8
Draw23%15%+8
Ludogorets win64%79%−15
Over 2.5 goals44%60%−16
Both teams to score40%40%0
Over 1.5 goals70%80%−10
Over 3.5 goals23%40%−17
Beroe or draw36%21%+15
Beroe clean sheet17%––
Ludogorets clean sheet51%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.2%
0123450 8.9 15.2 13.6 8.1 3.7 1 5.7 10.3 8.9 5.3 2.4 2 3.4 3.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Beroe down, Ludogorets across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsLUD 2–1 BER · BER 0–4 LUD · LUD 2–1 BER · BER 0–1 LUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Oct

BEROE

W2–1

LUDOGORETS

No matches in our record yet.