Home › Football › Serie C › Maringá v Floresta

Maringá v Floresta

Maringá

2–0Full time

Floresta

Serie C · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Maringá 2–0 Floresta MARINGÁ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maringá win~~50%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.383

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.262

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maringá win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maringá 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–23
1′KICK-OFF Maringá v Floresta
8′Little has changed for our model: Maringá 50% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–23
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Maringá 1–0 Floresta
16′⚽ GOAL · 17' Maringá 1–0 Floresta
29′A goal for Maringá on 17′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 43–35–21
45′SECOND HALF Maringá 0–0 Floresta
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Floresta · On: Matheus Lima · Off: Rafinha
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Maringá 1–0 Floresta
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Maringá
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Floresta
71′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Nonato · Floresta
71′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Floresta · On: Matheus Lima · Off: Rafinha
71′⚽ GOAL · 56' Maringá 1–0 Floresta · Ronald Camarao
71′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Matheus Lima · Floresta
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Maringá · On: Serginho · Off: Adeilson
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Maringá · On: Serginho · Off: Adeilson
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Floresta · On: Baianinho · Off: Rafa Marcos
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Floresta · On: Diego Matos · Off: Caique
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Maringá 2–0 Floresta · Ronald Camarao
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Maringá 2–0 Floresta
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Floresta · On: Matheusinho · Off: Nonato
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Floresta · On: Guilherme Borges · Off: Thalisson
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Maringá · On: Felipe Cardoso · Off: Jhow Alecxander
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Maringá · On: Giovane Gomez · Off: Caique Calito
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Maringá · On: Iago Santana · Off: Paulinho
FTFULL TIME Maringá 2–0 Floresta
FTMaringá 2–0 Floresta · Maringá win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Maringá win50%

Draw28%

Floresta win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Maringá

Formation not confirmed

25 Neto

18 Jhow Alecxander

30 Ronald Carvalho

3 Gabriel Santos

6 Thiago Rosa

23 Paulinho

8 Adeilson

28 Lucas Bonifacio

7 Edison Negueba

21 Ronald Camarao

99 Caique Calito

Coach · Campanari Ivan

Substitutes

1 · G. Affonso de Jesus

2 · Gabriel Souza

5 · Kelvi Gomes

9 · Giovane Gomez

10 · Guilherme Pira

11 · Danielzinho

14 · Felipe Cardoso

16 · Rian Patric

17 · Iago Santana

19 · Julio Rodrigues

37 · Serginho

44 · Jesiel

77 · Rafinha

Floresta

Formation not confirmed

12 Dheimison

2 Cedric

4 Joao Victor

5 Jhony Douglas

11 Rafinha

16 Zulu

17 Nonato

20 Thalisson

21 Rafa Marcos

23 Islan

29 Caique

Coach · Junior Leston

Substitutes

1 · Jeferson Souza

6 · Diego Matos

7 · Baianinho

8 · Danrley

10 · Matheusinho

15 · Eliandro

19 · Matheus Lima

26 · Thailor

28 · Guilherme Borges

30 · Eduardo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Maringá

Formation not confirmed

25 Neto

18 Jhow Alecxander

30 Ronald Carvalho

3 Gabriel Santos

6 Thiago Rosa

23 Paulinho

8 Adeilson

28 Lucas Bonifacio

7 Edison Negueba

21 Ronald Camarao

99 Caique Calito

Coach · Campanari Ivan

Substitutes

1 · G. Affonso de Jesus

2 · Gabriel Souza

5 · Kelvi Gomes

9 · Giovane Gomez

10 · Guilherme Pira

11 · Danielzinho

14 · Felipe Cardoso

16 · Rian Patric

17 · Iago Santana

19 · Julio Rodrigues

37 · Serginho

44 · Jesiel

77 · Rafinha

Floresta

Formation not confirmed

12 Dheimison

2 Cedric

4 Joao Victor

5 Jhony Douglas

11 Rafinha

16 Zulu

17 Nonato

20 Thalisson

21 Rafa Marcos

23 Islan

29 Caique

Coach · Junior Leston

Substitutes

1 · Jeferson Souza

6 · Diego Matos

7 · Baianinho

8 · Danrley

10 · Matheusinho

15 · Eliandro

19 · Matheus Lima

26 · Thailor

28 · Guilherme Borges

30 · Eduardo

Our number · maringá winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

50% The market59%

Us50%

~~Market~~59%

We make Maringá a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · maringá win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maringá win	50%	59%	−9
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Floresta win	22%	16%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	39%	43%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	43%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
Maringá or draw	78%	84%	−6
Maringá clean sheet	43%	–	–
Floresta clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 10.9 8.6 3.8 1 14.4 12.8 5.3 2 10.3 8.7 3.7 3 4.8 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maringá down, Floresta across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Serie C matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games this season, across 210 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maringá at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Floresta away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Maringá, 0.85 for Floresta. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FLO 0–1 MAR · FLO 1–1 MAR · MAR 1–1 FLO

Form · last six in Serie C

MARINGÁ

WWLWDD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

FLORESTA

WLWLDD2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santa Cruz	24	+8	40
2	Ferroviária	24	+8	38
3	Brusque	24	+6	38
4	Maringá	24	+4	38
5	Inter De Limeira	24	+4	37
6	Botafogo PB	24	+5	35
7	Floresta	24	+1	35
8	Paysandu	24	−4	33
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	+3	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	+10	28
11	Figueirense	19	−3	28
12	Maranhão	19	+1	27
13	Amazonas	19	−2	26
14	Caxias	19	+1	25
15	Ituano	19	−3	22
16	Barra	19	0	21
17	Volta Redonda	19	−12	21
18	Anápolis	19	−5	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	−13	17
20	Confiança	19	−9	13