Maringá v Ferroviária
MaringáFerroviáriaSerie C · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Maringá win at 43%.
- 0′KICK-OFF Maringá v Ferroviária
- 1′Much as we predicted: Maringá was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Adeilson · Maringá
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Maringá
- 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Maringá win 35%)
- 45′SECOND HALF Maringá 0–0 Ferroviária
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Maringá win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Ivan Campanari · Maringá
- 48′HALF-TIME Maringá 0–0 Ferroviária
- 53′We said Maringá at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–47–23
- 55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–48–22
- 56′We said Maringá at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Maringá · On: Gabriel Souza · Off: Jhow Alecxander
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ferroviária · On: Denilson Chaves · Off: Maranhao
- 67′We said Maringá at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–59–18
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ferroviária · On: M. Thiago · Off: Juninho
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Maringá win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
- 70′We published Maringá at 43%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Maringá 1–0 Ferroviária
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Maringá win: 43% at kick-off, 84% now
- 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Maringá win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
- 72′We published Maringá at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 74′Ronald Camarao scores for Maringá on 71′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–1
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ferroviária · On: Fau · Off: Vitor Barreto
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Maringá
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ferroviária · On: Schilling Arthur · Off: Ricardinho
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Maringá · On: Iago Santana · Off: Serginho
- 79′We published Maringá at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Maringá · On: Rai Natalino · Off: Caique Calito
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Maringá
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Maringá win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ferroviária · On: Alan Stence · Off: Rhuan
- 86′We published Maringá at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Maringá · On: Guilherme Pira · Off: Ronald Camarao
- 93′We said Maringá at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–96–2
- 93′Ferroviária score on 90′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 2–96–2
- 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Maringá
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Maringá 1–1 Ferroviária
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Maringá win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
- 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Maringá win 2%)
- 93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Maringá · On: Guilherme Pira · Off: Ronald Camarao
- 95′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 1–97–1
- FTFULL TIME Maringá 1–1 Ferroviária
- FTMaringá 1–1 Ferroviária · Maringá win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassMaringá are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Maringá 43%, draw 28%, Ferroviária 29%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
Maringá win43%Ferroviária win29%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00
RoundFinal
Match timeline
All events
MaringáMINFerroviáriaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Maringá
Ferroviária
Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C
Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Maringá a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maringá win | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| Ferroviária win | 29% | 26% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 43% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Maringá or draw | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Maringá clean sheet | 35% | – | – |
| Ferroviária clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie C this season · since 5 Sept
MARINGÁ
FERROVIÁRIA