Ferroviária v Maringá
FerroviáriaMaringáSerie C · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Ferroviária win at 49%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Ferroviária 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Ferroviária v Maringá
- 3′We said Ferroviária at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–24–51
- 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Ferroviária 0–1 Maringá
- 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Ferroviária win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
- 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Maringá win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Ferroviária win 49%)
- 5′Maringá score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 24–25–51
- 6′We said Ferroviária at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–52
- 12′We said Ferroviária at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–14–78
- 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Ferroviária 0–2 Maringá
- 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Ferroviária win: 49% at kick-off, 8% now
- 13′Maringá find the net on 13′. 0–2. 0–2 · 8–14–78
- 15′Maringá ahead on 12′ through Ronald Camarao. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–14–79
- 33′We said Ferroviária at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
- 33′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Ferroviária · On: Guilherme Ferreira · Off: Carlao
- 33′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Ferroviária · On: Schilling Arthur · Off: Ricardinho
- 45′SECOND HALF Ferroviária 0–2 Maringá
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' Maringá
- 52′HALF-TIME Ferroviária 0–2 Maringá
- 59′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–93
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Maringá · On: Gabriel Souza · Off: Jhow Alecxander
- 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Maringá
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ferroviária · On: Fau · Off: Eduardo Oliveira
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ferroviária · On: Alan Stence · Off: Vitor Barreto
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Maringá
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ferroviária · On: Maranhao · Off: Juninho
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Maringá · On: Rai Natalino · Off: Caique Calito
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Maringá
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Ronald Carvalho · Maringá
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Maringá · On: Gabriel Santos · Off: Thiago Rosa
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Maringá · On: Iago Santana · Off: Paulinho
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Maringá
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Maringá · On: Guilherme Pira · Off: Ronald Camarao
- 82′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–11–88
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Ferroviária 1–2 Maringá
- 83′A goal for Ferroviária on 82′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–90
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ferroviária · On: M. Thiago · Off: Alencar
- 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Maringá
- 99′1–2 at the end. Our 49% on Ferroviária misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME Ferroviária 1–2 Maringá
- FTFerroviária 1–2 Maringá · Ferroviária win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Ferroviária are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Ferroviária 49%, draw 27%, Maringá 24%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Ferroviária win49%Maringá win24%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00
RoundFinal
Match timeline
All events
FerroviáriaMINMaringáEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Ferroviária
Maringá
Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C
Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Ferroviária a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferroviária win | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | −3 |
| Maringá win | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 66% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 23% | 0 |
| Ferroviária or draw | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Ferroviária clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Maringá clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie C this season · since 12 Sept
FERROVIÁRIA
MARINGÁ