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Ferroviária v Inter De Limeira

Ferroviária

2–0Full time

Inter De Limeira

Serie C · SAT 10 OCT · Arena Fonte Luminosa

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ferroviária 2–0 Inter De Limeira FERROVIÁRIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ferroviária win~~49%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.391

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.383

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ferroviária win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ferroviária was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
1′KICK-OFF Ferroviária v Inter De Limeira
7′Much as we predicted: Ferroviária was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
27′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Inter De Limeira
45′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Romarinho · Inter De Limeira
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Fabricio Dias · Inter De Limeira
46′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Romarinho · Inter De Limeira
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Fabricio Dias · Inter De Limeira
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Inter De Limeira
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Ferroviária 1–0 Inter De Limeira
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Ferroviária 2–0 Inter De Limeira
FTFULL TIME Ferroviária 0–0 Inter De Limeira
FTFerroviária 2–0 Inter De Limeira · Ferroviária win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ferroviária win49%

Draw27%

Inter De Limeira win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Arena Fonte Luminosa

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ferroviária winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

49% The market50%

Us49%

~~Market~~50%

We make Ferroviária a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ferroviária win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferroviária win	49%	50%	−1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Inter De Limeira win	24%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Both teams to score	46%	46%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Ferroviária or draw	76%	78%	−1
Ferroviária clean sheet	40%	–	–
Inter De Limeira clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.0 8.4 4.0 1 13.4 12.7 5.7 2 9.8 8.9 4.1 3 4.7 4.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferroviária down, Inter De Limeira across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Serie C matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games this season, across 210 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ferroviária at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Inter De Limeira away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Ferroviária, 0.91 for Inter De Limeira. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~INT 3–3 FER · FER 2–0 INT

Form · last six in Serie C

FERROVIÁRIA

WDWWDL1–0 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

INTER DE LIMEIRA

DDDDWD0–0 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santa Cruz	24	+8	40
2	Ferroviária	24	+8	38
3	Brusque	24	+6	38
4	Maringá	24	+4	38
5	Inter De Limeira	24	+4	37
6	Botafogo PB	24	+5	35
7	Floresta	24	+1	35
8	Paysandu	24	−4	33
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	+3	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	+10	28
11	Figueirense	19	−3	28
12	Maranhão	19	+1	27
13	Amazonas	19	−2	26
14	Caxias	19	+1	25
15	Ituano	19	−3	22
16	Barra	19	0	21
17	Volta Redonda	19	−12	21
18	Anápolis	19	−5	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	−13	17
20	Confiança	19	−9	13