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Brusque v Paysandu

Brusque

1–1Full time

Paysandu

Serie C · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Brusque 1–1 Paysandu BRUSQUE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Brusque win~~52%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.876

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.766

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brusque win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Brusque 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
6′Little has changed for our model: Brusque 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–22
27′11′ and it is 0–1: Italo Carvalho on the scoresheet for Paysandu. 0–1 · 20–27–54
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Brusque win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Paysandu win 23%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Brusque win: 52% at kick-off, 20% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Paysandu win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Brusque win 20%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Brusque win: 52% at kick-off, 52% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Brusque win: 52% at kick-off, 52% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Brusque win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Paysandu win 23%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Brusque win: 52% at kick-off, 20% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Paysandu win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Brusque win 20%)
38′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Brusque · On: Raimar · Off: Rafael Milhorim
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Brusque win: 52% at kick-off, 20% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Paysandu win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Brusque win 20%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Brusque win: 52% at kick-off, 52% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Brusque win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Paysandu win 23%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Brusque win: 52% at kick-off, 52% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Brusque win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Paysandu win 23%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Brusque win: 52% at kick-off, 20% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Paysandu win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Brusque win 20%)
46′⚽ GOAL · 11' Brusque 0–1 Paysandu · Italo Carvalho
46′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Brusque · On: Raimar · Off: Rafael Milhorim
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Brusque
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Brusque
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Brusque 1–1 Paysandu
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Brusque 1–1 Paysandu
74′⚽ GOAL · 72' Brusque 1–1 Paysandu · Jeferson
75′⚽ GOAL · 72' Brusque 1–1 Paysandu · Jeferson
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Paysandu · On: Thayllon · Off: Pablo Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Paysandu · On: Radsley · Off: Marcinho Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Paysandu · On: Thayllon · Off: Pablo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Paysandu · On: Radsley · Off: Marcinho
90′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Brusque
FTFULL TIME Brusque 0–1 Paysandu
FTBrusque 1–1 Paysandu · Brusque win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Brusque win52%

Draw26%

Paysandu win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brusque winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

52% The market36%

Us52%

~~Market~~36%

We make Brusque a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · brusque win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brusque win	52%	36%	+16
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Paysandu win	22%	36%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	27%	−1
Brusque or draw	78%	64%	+13
Brusque clean sheet	38%	–	–
Paysandu clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.1 7.1 3.5 1 12.0 12.0 5.6 2 9.9 9.4 4.5 3 5.3 5.1 2.5 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brusque down, Paysandu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Serie C matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games this season, across 210 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brusque at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Paysandu away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Brusque, 0.96 for Paysandu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PAY 1–2 BRU · PAY 1–1 BRU · PAY 0–2 BRU

Form · last six in Serie C

BRUSQUE

DWDLDD2–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2

PAYSANDU

LLLDLW0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santa Cruz	24	+8	40
2	Ferroviária	24	+8	38
3	Brusque	24	+6	38
4	Maringá	24	+4	38
5	Inter De Limeira	24	+4	37
6	Botafogo PB	24	+5	35
7	Floresta	24	+1	35
8	Paysandu	24	−4	33
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	+3	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	+10	28
11	Figueirense	19	−3	28
12	Maranhão	19	+1	27
13	Amazonas	19	−2	26
14	Caxias	19	+1	25
15	Ituano	19	−3	22
16	Barra	19	0	21
17	Volta Redonda	19	−12	21
18	Anápolis	19	−5	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	−13	17
20	Confiança	19	−9	13