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Botafogo PB v Santa Cruz

Botafogo PB

1–0Full time

Santa Cruz

Serie C · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Botafogo PB 1–0 Santa Cruz BOTAFOGO PB WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Botafogo PB win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.469

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Botafogo PB win at 44%.
0′Much as we predicted: Botafogo PB was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–30–25
1′KICK-OFF Botafogo PB v Santa Cruz
7′Much as we predicted: Botafogo PB was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–32–25
38′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Botafogo PB
45′SECOND HALF Botafogo PB 0–0 Santa Cruz
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Botafogo PB · On: Patric Calmon · Off: Bull
46′HALF-TIME Botafogo PB 0–0 Santa Cruz
46′SECOND HALF Botafogo PB 0–0 Santa Cruz
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Santa Cruz · On: Joao Pedro · Off: Willian Junior
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Santa Cruz · On: Matheus Cadorini · Off: Eron
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Botafogo PB · On: Dudu Hatamoto · Off: Kayon
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Botafogo PB · On: Gustavo · Off: Diego Tavares
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Santa Cruz
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Santa Cruz · On: Andrey · Off: Everaldo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Santa Cruz · On: Alex Ruan · Off: Ronald
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Santa Cruz · On: Alex Ruan · Off: Ronald
71′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Saimon · Botafogo PB
71′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Botafogo PB · On: Patric Calmon · Off: Bull
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Botafogo PB · On: Gustavo · Off: Diego Tavares
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Botafogo PB · On: Dudu Hatamoto · Off: Kayon
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Santa Cruz · On: Matheus Cadorini · Off: Eron
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Santa Cruz · On: Joao Pedro · Off: Willian Junior
71′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Everaldo · Santa Cruz
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Santa Cruz · On: Andrey · Off: Everaldo
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Santa Cruz · On: Alex Ruan · Off: Ronald
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Botafogo PB · On: Giovanni · Off: Thallyson
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Botafogo PB · On: Lucas Candido · Off: Caio Garcia
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Botafogo PB 1–0 Santa Cruz
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Botafogo PB 1–0 Santa Cruz
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Botafogo PB 1–0 Santa Cruz
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Santa Cruz
FTFULL TIME Botafogo PB 1–0 Santa Cruz
FTBotafogo PB 1–0 Santa Cruz · Botafogo PB win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Botafogo PB win44%

Draw31%

Santa Cruz win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Botafogo PB

Formation not confirmed

21 Leandro Mathias

22 Leo Pereira

35 Octavio

4 Saimon

16 Bull

25 Caio Garcia

20 Thallyson

10 Nene

11 Diego Tavares

15 Kayon

77 R. Bastos

Coach · –

Substitutes

34 · Edilson

2 · Diogo Mateus

6 · Patric Calmon

7 · Dudu Hatamoto

12 · Erick

14 · Igor Morais

18 · Giovanni

28 · Lucas Candido

30 · L. M. Alves

31 · Gustavo

33 · Julio Vaz

84 · Deivid

Santa Cruz

Formation not confirmed

1 Thiago Coelho

4 William Alves

5 Pedro Favela

13 Matheus Vinicius

17 Ronald

18 Willian Junior

19 Renato

26 Silva

27 Edson Miranda

28 Eron

37 Everaldo

Coach · Oliveira Claudinei

Substitutes

12 · Rokenedy

2 · Thiago Ennes

6 · Alex Ruan

7 · Fabinho

8 · Arilson

9 · Matheus Cadorini

10 · Cassiano

11 · Matheus Melo

14 · Denis

15 · Andrey

23 · Tiago Marques

32 · Joao Pedro

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Botafogo PB

Formation not confirmed

21 Leandro Mathias

22 Leo Pereira

35 Octavio

4 Saimon

16 Bull

25 Caio Garcia

20 Thallyson

10 Nene

11 Diego Tavares

15 Kayon

77 R. Bastos

Coach · –

Substitutes

34 · Edilson

2 · Diogo Mateus

6 · Patric Calmon

7 · Dudu Hatamoto

12 · Erick

14 · Igor Morais

18 · Giovanni

28 · Lucas Candido

30 · L. M. Alves

31 · Gustavo

33 · Julio Vaz

84 · Deivid

Santa Cruz

Formation not confirmed

1 Thiago Coelho

4 William Alves

5 Pedro Favela

13 Matheus Vinicius

17 Ronald

18 Willian Junior

19 Renato

26 Silva

27 Edson Miranda

28 Eron

37 Everaldo

Coach · Oliveira Claudinei

Substitutes

12 · Rokenedy

2 · Thiago Ennes

6 · Alex Ruan

7 · Fabinho

8 · Arilson

9 · Matheus Cadorini

10 · Cassiano

11 · Matheus Melo

14 · Denis

15 · Andrey

23 · Tiago Marques

32 · Joao Pedro

Our number · botafogo pb winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Botafogo PB a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · botafogo pb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botafogo PB win	44%	44%	0
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Santa Cruz win	25%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	32%	42%	−10
Both teams to score	39%	48%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	59%	67%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	14%	22%	−8
Botafogo PB or draw	75%	73%	+2
Botafogo PB clean sheet	45%	–	–
Santa Cruz clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 14.1 10.8 4.5 1 15.8 13.3 5.3 2 9.5 7.6 3.1 3 3.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Botafogo PB down, Santa Cruz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Serie C matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games this season, across 210 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botafogo PB at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Santa Cruz away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Botafogo PB, 0.81 for Santa Cruz. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 BOT · BOT 2–2 SAN · SAN 1–1 BOT · BOT 1–0 SAN

Form · last six in Serie C

BOTAFOGO PB

WLLLDD2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

SANTA CRUZ

DWWWDD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santa Cruz	24	+8	40
2	Ferroviária	24	+8	38
3	Brusque	24	+6	38
4	Maringá	24	+4	38
5	Inter De Limeira	24	+4	37
6	Botafogo PB	24	+5	35
7	Floresta	24	+1	35
8	Paysandu	24	−4	33
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	+3	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	+10	28
11	Figueirense	19	−3	28
12	Maranhão	19	+1	27
13	Amazonas	19	−2	26
14	Caxias	19	+1	25
15	Ituano	19	−3	22
16	Barra	19	0	21
17	Volta Redonda	19	−12	21
18	Anápolis	19	−5	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	−13	17
20	Confiança	19	−9	13