Home › Football › Serie B › Vila Nova v Novorizontino

Vila Nova v Novorizontino

Vila Nova

2–2Full time

Novorizontino

Serie B · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 00:30

Vila Nova 2–2 Novorizontino VILA NOVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vila Nova win~~36%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.764

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vila Nova win at 36%.
0′KICK-OFF Vila Nova v Novorizontino
1′Little has changed for our model: Vila Nova 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
25′We said Vila Nova at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Vila Nova 0–1 Novorizontino
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Vila Nova win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Novorizontino win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Vila Nova win 11%)
26′Robson scores for Novorizontino on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Hayner · Vila Nova
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–68
33′We said Vila Nova at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Willian Maranhão · Vila Nova
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Robson · Novorizontino
42′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Novorizontino · On: Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho · Off: Sander
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vila Nova · On: Raphael Guimarães de Paula · Off: Willian Maranhão
45′SECOND HALF Vila Nova 0–1 Novorizontino
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Novorizontino · On: Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito · Off: Robson
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Vila Nova win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
50′HALF-TIME Vila Nova 0–1 Novorizontino
56′We said Vila Nova at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Vila Nova 0–2 Novorizontino
58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' Novorizontino
61′We said Vila Nova at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–55–22
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Vila Nova 1–1 Novorizontino
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Vila Nova win: 36% at kick-off, 23% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Novorizontino win 22%)
62′62′: Raphael Guimarães de Paula on the scoresheet for Vila Nova, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 22–56–22
66′8 shots for Vila Nova, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 20–60–20
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Novorizontino · On: Juninho · Off: Nicolas Morês da Cruz
68′We said Vila Nova at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
70′We said Vila Nova at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Vila Nova 2–1 Novorizontino
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Vila Nova win: 36% at kick-off, 83% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vila Nova · On: Nathan Camargo · Off: Higor Meritão
72′Vila Nova ahead on 71′ through André Luís. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
72′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–14–2
74′We said Vila Nova at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Vila Nova win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Novorizontino · On: Vinicius · Off: Luís Oyama
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Novorizontino · On: Ronald Barcellos Arantes · Off: Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomes
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vila Nova · On: Igor Cariús · Off: Hayner
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vila Nova · On: Guilherme Augusto Alves Dellatorre · Off: André Luís
80′We said Vila Nova at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Vila Nova · On: Tiago Pagnussat · Off: Marquinhos Gabriel
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Vila Nova · On: enzo · Off: Everton Galdino
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Novorizontino · On: C. Ortiz · Off: Romulo Azevedo Simão
87′We said Vila Nova at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Matheus Henrique Bianqui · Novorizontino
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Vila Nova win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho · Novorizontino
98′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 1–98–1
98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Vila Nova 2–2 Novorizontino
98′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+8' Vila Nova win: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
98′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+8' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Vila Nova win 1%)
99′C. Ortiz scores for Novorizontino on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 1–98–1
FTFULL TIME Vila Nova 2–2 Novorizontino
FTVila Nova 2–2 Novorizontino · Vila Nova win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vila Nova just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vila Nova 36%, draw 29%, Novorizontino 35%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Vila Nova v NovorizontinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vila Nova win36%

Draw29%

Novorizontino win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga

RefereeFelipe Fernandes de Lima

Line-ups

Vila Nova

4-2-3-1

Novorizontino

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vila Nova

Novorizontino

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 12 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vila Nova

4-2-3-1

1 Helton Leite

22 Hayner

4 Douglas Mendes

23 Jonathan Costa

6 Higor

21 Higor Meritão

8 Willian Maranhão

17 Everton Galdino

10 Marquinhos Gabriel

99 Janderson

7 André Luís

Coach · Guto Ferreira

Substitutes

29 · Dalberson

14 · Anderson

49 · Dellatorre

31 · Dodô

70 · Emerson Urso

18 · Enzo

16 · Igor Cariús

9 · Lincoln

20 · Nathan Camargo

3 · Tiago Pagnussat

11 · Ryan Lima

13 · Willian Formiga

Novorizontino

4-2-3-1

93 Jordi

2 Madson

3 Carlinhos

14 Eduardo Brock

5 Sander

17 Matheus Bianqui

6 Luis Oyama

41 Reidiney

10 Romulo

30 Nicolas Careca

11 Robson

Coach · Enderson Moreira

Substitutes

31 · César

50 · Juninho

18 · Léo Naldi

24 · J. Lora

28 · Marlon

66 · Maykon

8 · C. Ortíz

7 · Ronald Barcellos

16 · Vinícius

9 · Carlão

27 · Diego Mathias

22 · A. Alvariño

Our number · vila nova winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:32 · locked at kick-off

36% The market33%

Us36%

~~Market~~33%

We make Vila Nova a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vila Nova v Novorizontino~~1.14 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 61 v 60~~1 v 3

~~The market · Vila Nova win~~33% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vila Nova win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vila Nova win	36%	33%	+3
Draw	29%	32%	−3
Novorizontino win	35%	36%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Both teams to score	45%	47%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	65%	65%	0
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
Vila Nova or draw	65%	64%	+1
Vila Nova clean sheet	33%	–	–
Novorizontino clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.7 11.8 6.5 2.4 1 12.1 13.1 7.3 2.7 2 6.8 7.5 4.1 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vila Nova down, Novorizontino across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,234 Serie B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 334 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vila Nova at home: 2.17 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Novorizontino away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Vila Nova, 1.11 for Novorizontino. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 21:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~NOV 2–1 VIL · NOV 1–1 VIL · VIL 0–1 NOV · NOV 2–0 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 13 Sept

VILA NOVA

DWWWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

NOVORIZONTINO

DLDWWW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 5–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	33	+15	61
2	Juventude	34	+18	61
3	Novorizontino	33	+31	60
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	33	+6	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	CRB	33	+4	52
8	Sport Recife	34	+8	51
9	Goias	33	−6	48
10	Operario-PR	34	−2	48
11	Cuiaba	33	+6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	+10	46
13	Ceara	34	−5	43
14	Athletic Club	33	+1	43
15	Nautico Recife	33	−3	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	−1	41
17	Avai	33	−10	36
18	Londrina	33	−7	29
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14