Vila Nova v Juventude prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Vila NovaDrawJuventude

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vila Nova 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vila Nova are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vila Nova 39%, draw 30%, Juventude 31%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Vila Nova v JuventudeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Vila Nova win39%

Draw30%

Juventude win31%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 36

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vila Nova

Juventude

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Vila Nova	35	+14	62
3	Juventude	34	+18	61

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vila nova winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Vila Nova a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vila Nova v Juventude~~1.11 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 62 v 61~~2 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vila Nova win	39%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Juventude win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Vila Nova or draw	69%	–	–
Vila Nova clean sheet	39%	–	–
Juventude clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 12.8 12.3 5.8 1 14.2 13.1 6.3 2.1 2 7.8 7.3 3.5 3 2.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vila Nova down, Juventude across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,247 Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 347 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vila Nova at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Juventude away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Vila Nova, 0.96 for Juventude. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~JUV 1–0 VIL · JUV 0–2 VIL · VIL 1–0 JUV · VIL 1–1 JUV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 19 Sept

VILA NOVA

WWDWDL2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–3

JUVENTUDE

LWWWDD1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Novorizontino	35	+32	64
2	Vila Nova	35	+14	62
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
7	Atletico Goianiense	35	+9	54
8	CRB	34	+3	52
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	São Bernardo	35	+10	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	+2	47
13	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	35	−12	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14