Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 03:01

Sport Recife 0–2 Fortaleza EC SPORT RECIFE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sport Recife win~~50%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.898

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.599

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sport Recife win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sport Recife was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–24
1′KICK-OFF Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Marcelo Ajul · Sport Recife
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Maurício Mucuri · Fortaleza EC
22′7 shots for Sport Recife, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 45–32–23
30′Sport Recife have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 43–35–22
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Mariano Andrés Soso · Sport Recife
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sport Recife win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
44′We said Sport Recife at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–41–21
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Tomás Cardona · Fortaleza EC
45′SECOND HALF Sport Recife 0–1 Fortaleza EC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fortaleza EC · On: Kaio Henrique · Off: Maurício Mucuri
46′A red card for Sport Recife on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 37–42–20
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Sport Recife win 37%)
46′🟥 RED CARD · 45+1' Sport Recife
47′We said Sport Recife at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–26–63
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sport Recife 0–1 Fortaleza EC
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Sport Recife win: 50% at kick-off, 11% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Fortaleza EC win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 26%)
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sport Recife · On: José Gabriel dos Santos Silva · Off: Biel
48′Fortaleza EC ahead on 45′ through Tomás Cardona. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–26–63
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–26–64
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Sport Recife win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' Biel · Sport Recife
52′We said Sport Recife at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
52′HALF-TIME Sport Recife 0–1 Fortaleza EC
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Fortaleza EC · On: Pedro Henrique · Off: Juan Camilo Cantillo
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Jailson Siqueira · Fortaleza EC
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sport Recife · On: Edson Lucas Pereira · Off: Raí Lopes de Oliveira
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sport Recife · On: Marlon Douglas · Off: Diego·Hernandez
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sport Recife · On: Neto Pessoa · Off: Pedro Henrique Perotti
63′Sport Recife have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 6–23–72
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Fortaleza EC · On: Lucas Xavier Gazal · Off: Tomás Cardona
68′We said Sport Recife at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sport Recife 0–2 Fortaleza EC
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Sport Recife win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
71′Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza scores for Fortaleza EC on 69′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sport Recife · On: Carlos María de Pena Bonino · Off: Willian Oliveira
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Fortaleza EC
81′Red cards for both sides: Sport Recife down to ten, Fortaleza EC to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–1–99
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Fortaleza EC · On: Welliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus · Off: Luiz Fernando
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Fortaleza EC · On: ronald falkoski · Off: Neris
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sport Recife · On: Kervin Andrade · Off: Habraão Lincon do Nascimento Saraiva
89′17 shots for Sport Recife, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Fortaleza EC · On: Rodrigo Oliveira dos Santos · Off: Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza
FTFULL TIME Sport Recife 0–2 Fortaleza EC
FTSport Recife 0–2 Fortaleza EC · Sport Recife win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sport Recife are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sport Recife 50%, draw 27%, Fortaleza EC 24%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Sport Recife v Fortaleza ECBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sport Recife win50%

Draw27%

Fortaleza EC win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueIlha do Retiro

RefereeAndre Luiz Skettino Policarpo Bento

Line-ups

Sport Recife

4-2-3-1

Fortaleza EC

3-5-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sport Recife

Fortaleza EC

5Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 12 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Fortaleza EC	33	+10	57
8	Sport Recife	33	+10	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sport Recife

4-2-3-1

26 Thiago Couto

27 Claudinho

28 Habraão

3 Marcelo Ajul

76 Raí

6 Biel

30 Chrystian Barletta

29 Willian Oliveira

20 D. Hernández

7 Patrick de Paula

9 Perotti

Coach · M. Soso

Substitutes

23 · Zé Gabriel

21 · Brenno

25 · Clayson

10 · C. de Pena

77 · Dudu

96 · Edson

8 · Juan Alano

31 · Marlon

19 · Neto Pessoa

80 · K. Andrade

40 · Matheus Miranda

68 · Augusto

Fortaleza EC

3-5-1-1

1 João Ricardo

23 Neris

15 Bartolomeu Jacinto Quissanga

6 T. Cardona

22 Maílton

32 Luiz Fernando

5 Pierre

20 Jaílson

13 Maurício Júnior Lima Rodrigues

75 Rodriguinho

21 J. Cantillo

Coach · Paulo Autuori

Substitutes

10 · Lucas Crispim

8 · Ronald

12 · Kaio Henrique

11 · Vitinho

17 · Nathan Fogaça

3 · Lucas Gazal

16 · Pedro Henrique

29 · Rodrigo

77 · Paulo Baya

31 · Welliton

25 · Vinícius Silvestre

91 · Francisco da Costa

Our number · sport recife winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:32 · locked at kick-off

50% The market34%

Us50%

~~Market~~34%

We make Sport Recife a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC~~1.45 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 51 v 57~~8 v 4

~~The market · Sport Recife win~~34% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sport Recife win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sport Recife win	50%	34%	+16
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Fortaleza EC win	24%	37%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Sport Recife or draw	76%	63%	+13
Sport Recife clean sheet	41%	–	–
Fortaleza EC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 9.6 8.7 3.9 1 13.8 12.3 5.6 2 9.9 8.8 4.0 3 4.8 4.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sport Recife down, Fortaleza EC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,230 Serie B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 330 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sport Recife at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Fortaleza EC away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Sport Recife, 0.91 for Fortaleza EC. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOR 2–1 SPO · SPO 0–2 FOR · FOR 1–2 SPO · FOR 2–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 13 Sept

SPORT RECIFE

LWLWWD1–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

FORTALEZA EC

DWDDWD1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	33	+15	61
2	Novorizontino	33	+31	60
3	Juventude	33	+18	60
4	Fortaleza EC	33	+10	57
5	Criciuma	33	+6	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	33	+10	53
7	CRB	33	+4	52
8	Sport Recife	33	+10	51
9	Goias	33	−6	48
10	Operario-PR	33	−1	48
11	Cuiaba	33	+6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	+10	46
13	Athletic Club	33	+1	43
14	Nautico Recife	33	−3	42
15	Ceara	33	−5	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	−1	41
17	Avai	33	−10	36
18	Londrina	33	−7	29
19	America Mineiro	33	−33	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	−55	13