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São Bernardo v Vila Nova

São Bernardo

3–2Full time

Vila Nova

Serie B · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Primeiro de Maio

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:01

São Bernardo 3–2 Vila Nova SÃO BERNARDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said São Bernardo win~~46%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.434

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.712

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said São Bernardo win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: São Bernardo was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF São Bernardo v Vila Nova
3′Vila Nova find the net on 1′. 0–0 · 46–28–26
3′2′: Janderson on the scoresheet for Vila Nova. 0–0 · 46–28–26
4′We said São Bernardo at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–24–54
4′⚽ GOAL · 2' São Bernardo 0–1 Vila Nova · Janderson
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' São Bernardo win: 46% at kick-off, 21% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was São Bernardo win 46%)
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' São Bernardo 1–1 Vila Nova
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' São Bernardo win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' São Bernardo win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Vila Nova win 55%)
9′6′: Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva on the scoresheet for São Bernardo, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 45–29–26
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' São Bernardo win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was São Bernardo win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME São Bernardo 1–1 Vila Nova
45′SECOND HALF São Bernardo 1–1 Vila Nova
47′We said São Bernardo at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–22
50′We said São Bernardo at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' São Bernardo 1–2 Vila Nova
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' São Bernardo win: 46% at kick-off, 9% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 46%)
51′Vila Nova ahead on 49′ through Everton Galdino. 1–2. 1–2 · 8–24–67
52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–24–68
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' São Bernardo win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' São Bernardo · On: Foguinho · Off: Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Vila Nova
61′A red card for Vila Nova on 59′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 6–22–72
65′We said São Bernardo at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Vila Nova · On: Igor Cariús · Off: Marquinhos Gabriel
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' São Bernardo · On: Hyoran · Off: Fabrício Daniel
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' São Bernardo · On: Daniel Amorim · Off: Marcão Silva
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vila Nova · On: Guilherme Augusto Alves Dellatorre · Off: Higor Meritão
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vila Nova · On: Willian Maranhão · Off: André Luís
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' São Bernardo · On: Breno Ruan Melo Almeida · Off: Lucas Fernandes
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vila Nova · On: Nathan Camargo · Off: João Pedro Vieira
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vila Nova · On: Willian Prado Camargo · Off: Everton Galdino
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' São Bernardo · On: Daniel Davi Simão Roque · Off: Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Eduardo·da Silva Albuquerque · São Bernardo
96′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 1–97–1
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' São Bernardo 2–2 Vila Nova
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Vila Nova win 99%)
98′Rodrigo Ferreira scores for São Bernardo on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 1–97–1
100′🟨 YELLOW · 90+9' Foguinho · São Bernardo
101′We published São Bernardo at 46%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–2 · 99–1–0
101′🟨 YELLOW · 90+10' Igor Cariús · Vila Nova
101′⚽ GOAL · 90+11' São Bernardo 3–2 Vila Nova
101′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+11' São Bernardo win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
101′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+11' São Bernardo win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
102′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME São Bernardo 3–2 Vila Nova
FTSão Bernardo 3–2 Vila Nova · São Bernardo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

São Bernardo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: São Bernardo 46%, draw 27%, Vila Nova 26%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on São Bernardo v Vila NovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

São Bernardo win46%

Draw27%

Vila Nova win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Primeiro de Maio

RefereeAlex Gomes Stefano

Line-ups

São Bernardo

5-4-1

Vila Nova

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

São Bernardo

Vila Nova

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

São Bernardo

5-4-1

1 Alex Alves

2 Rodrigo Ferreira

77 Marcão

35 Jemerson

90 Luizão

6 Pará

31 Lucas Fernandes

14 Lucas Lima

26 Eduardo

29 Pedrinho

10 Fabrício Daniel

Coach · Vinícius Bergantin

Substitutes

33 · Mário Sérgio

89 · Daniel Amorim

27 · Echaporã

8 · Foguinho

42 · Hyoran

3 · Hélder

30 · Breninho

36 · João Vitor Rodrigues Galdino

21 · Hugo Sanches

37 · D. Davi

12 · Júnior Oliveira

97 · Augusto

Vila Nova

4-2-3-1

1 Helton Leite

22 Hayner

4 Douglas Mendes

23 Jonathan Costa

6 Higor

5 João Vieira

21 Higor Meritão

17 Everton Galdino

10 Marquinhos Gabriel

99 Janderson

7 André Luís

Coach · Guto Ferreira

Substitutes

14 · Anderson

8 · Willian Maranhão

3 · Tiago Pagnussat

20 · Nathan Camargo

9 · Lincoln

16 · Igor Cariús

70 · Emerson Urso

31 · Dodô

49 · Dellatorre

11 · Ryan Lima

29 · Dalberson

Our number · são bernardo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

46% The market31%

Us46%

~~Market~~31%

We make São Bernardo a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · São Bernardo v Vila Nova~~1.36 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 46 v 62~~12 v 1

~~The market · São Bernardo win~~31% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · São Bernardo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
São Bernardo win	46%	31%	+15
Draw	27%	31%	−4
Vila Nova win	26%	38%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
São Bernardo or draw	74%	62%	+12
São Bernardo clean sheet	39%	–	–
Vila Nova clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 10.0 9.6 4.5 1 13.6 12.6 6.0 2 9.1 8.6 4.1 3 4.2 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+São Bernardo down, Vila Nova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,241 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.5% of games this season, across 341 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

São Bernardo at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vila Nova away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for São Bernardo, 0.95 for Vila Nova. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VIL 2–1 SAO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 18 Sept

SÃO BERNARDO

WDWLDL1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

VILA NOVA

WWWDWD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	34	+15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
8	CRB	34	+3	52
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
12	São Bernardo	34	+9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	34	−10	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14