São Bernardo v Criciuma prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

São Bernardo 0–1 Criciuma SÃO BERNARDO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said São Bernardo win~~43%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.790

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.503

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said São Bernardo win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: São Bernardo 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
1′KICK-OFF São Bernardo v Criciuma
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was São Bernardo win 35%)
36′A goal for Criciuma on 35′. 0–0 · 35–41–24
36′We said São Bernardo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–65
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' São Bernardo 0–1 Criciuma
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' São Bernardo win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Criciuma win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 24%)
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–65
41′We said São Bernardo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
45′HALF-TIME São Bernardo 0–1 Criciuma
45′SECOND HALF São Bernardo 0–1 Criciuma
61′We said São Bernardo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Criciuma · On: Bruno Alves · Off: César Martins
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Criciuma · On: Waguininho · Off: Rómulo Otero
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' São Bernardo win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' São Bernardo · On: Mário Sérgio Valerio · Off: Pará
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' São Bernardo · On: Fabrício Daniel · Off: Lucas Fernandes
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' São Bernardo · On: Daniel Davi Simão Roque · Off: Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Criciuma · On: Yuri Jonathan · Off: Nicolas Godinho Johann
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' São Bernardo · On: Romisson · Off: Foguinho
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' São Bernardo · On: Pedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva · Off: Luiz Gustavo Oliveira da Silva
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Criciuma · On: Guilherme Teixeira Lobo · Off: Diego Gonçalves
FTFULL TIME São Bernardo 0–1 Criciuma
FTSão Bernardo 0–1 Criciuma · São Bernardo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

São Bernardo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: São Bernardo 43%, draw 30%, Criciuma 28%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on São Bernardo v CriciumaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

São Bernardo win43%

Draw30%

Criciuma win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio Primeiro de Maio

RefereeBruno Pereira Vasconcelos

Line-ups

São Bernardo

3-4-3

Criciuma

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

São Bernardo

Criciuma

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 12 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Criciuma	33	+6	56
12	São Bernardo	33	+10	46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

São Bernardo

3-4-3

1 Alex Alves

77 Marcão

35 Jemerson

90 Luizão

21 Hugo Sanches

8 Foguinho

26 Eduardo

6 Pará

31 Lucas Fernandes

9 Felipe Garcia

29 Pedrinho

Coach · Vinícius Bergantin

Substitutes

97 · Augusto

10 · Fabrício Daniel

42 · Hyoran

7 · Lucas

33 · Mário Sérgio

11 · Pedro Vitor

3 · Hélder

30 · Breninho

36 · João Vitor Rodrigues Galdino

37 · D. Davi

12 · Júnior Oliveira

17 · Romisson

Criciuma

3-4-2-1

32 Airton

37 César Martins

3 Rodrigo

4 Luciano Castán

97 Willean Lepo

14 Ronald

7 Fellipe Mateus

22 Marcelo Hermes

91 R. Otero

77 Diego Gonçalves

9 Nicolas

Coach · Umberto Louzer

Substitutes

31 · Hiago Accinelli da Roza

41 · Jean Irmer

13 · Waguininho

8 · Guilherme Lobo

11 · Romarinho

90 · Gabriel Capella Chaves

6 · Marcinho

34 · Bruno Alves

33 · Yuri

5 · Eduardo

70 · Pedro

Our number · são bernardo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market28%

Us43%

~~Market~~28%

We make São Bernardo a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · São Bernardo v Criciuma~~1.18 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 46 v 56~~12 v 5

~~The market · São Bernardo win~~28% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · São Bernardo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
São Bernardo win	43%	28%	+15
Draw	30%	30%	0
Criciuma win	28%	42%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	34%	42%	−8
Both teams to score	41%	48%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	61%	67%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−7
São Bernardo or draw	72%	58%	+14
São Bernardo clean sheet	41%	–	–
Criciuma clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 12.7 11.3 5.0 1 14.9 13.0 5.9 2 8.7 7.7 3.5 3 3.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+São Bernardo down, Criciuma across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,234 Serie B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 334 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

São Bernardo at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Criciuma away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for São Bernardo, 0.89 for Criciuma. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CRI 1–0 SAO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 13 Sept

SÃO BERNARDO

WWDWLD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

CRICIUMA

LLWWLW0–4 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	33	+15	61
2	Juventude	34	+18	61
3	Novorizontino	33	+31	60
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	33	+6	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	CRB	33	+4	52
8	Sport Recife	34	+8	51
9	Goias	33	−6	48
10	Operario-PR	34	−2	48
11	Cuiaba	33	+6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	+10	46
13	Ceara	34	−5	43
14	Athletic Club	33	+1	43
15	Nautico Recife	33	−3	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	−1	41
17	Avai	33	−10	36
18	Londrina	33	−7	29
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14