Ponte Preta v Fortaleza EC

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Fortaleza EC win at 52%.
2. 0′KICK-OFF Ponte Preta v Fortaleza EC
3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Fortaleza EC 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 22–27–51
4. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Gustavo Telles · Ponte Preta
5. 23′PENALTY · 22' Fortaleza EC
6. 25′We said Fortaleza EC at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 5–16–79
7. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Danilo Barcelos · Ponte Preta
8. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Ponte Preta 0–1 Fortaleza EC
9. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Fortaleza EC win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
10. 26′Fortaleza EC ahead on 25′ through Maílton. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–16–79
11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 5–16–79
12. 33′We said Fortaleza EC at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 5–16–80
13. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Maílton · Fortaleza EC
14. 43′We said Fortaleza EC at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 19–41–40
15. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Ponte Preta 1–1 Fortaleza EC
16. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Fortaleza EC win: 52% at kick-off, 40% now
17. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Fortaleza EC win: 52% at kick-off, 39% now
18. 45′Gustavo Felipe Almeida scores for Ponte Preta on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–42–39
19. 45′SECOND HALF Ponte Preta 2–1 Fortaleza EC
20. 46′We said Fortaleza EC at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 19–43–38
21. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Fortaleza EC win 81%)
22. 47′We said Fortaleza EC at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 2–1 · 62–27–11
23. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ponte Preta 2–1 Fortaleza EC
24. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Fortaleza EC win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
25. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Ponte Preta win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Draw 43%)
26. 48′45′: Guilherme Brandão Azevedo on the scoresheet for Ponte Preta, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 63–26–11
27. 49′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 63–26–11
28. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Felipe Di Mauro · Ponte Preta
29. 50′HALF-TIME Ponte Preta 2–1 Fortaleza EC
30. 53′We said Fortaleza EC at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 65–26–9
31. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Fortaleza EC · On: Paulo Baya · Off: Vitor Ferreira
32. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Fortaleza EC · On: Welliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus · Off: Pedro Henrique
33. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ponte Preta · On: Denis · Off: Rodrigo Souza
34. 65′We said Fortaleza EC at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 2–2 · 15–58–28
35. 65′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 15–58–28
36. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Ponte Preta 2–2 Fortaleza EC
37. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Fortaleza EC win: 52% at kick-off, 28% now
38. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Ponte Preta win 72%)
39. 67′Fortaleza EC level it on 65′ through Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza. 2–2. 2–2 · 14–60–26
40. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Fortaleza EC · On: Lucca Prior Pimenta · Off: Maurício Mucuri
41. 69′We said Fortaleza EC at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 13–62–24
42. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Fortaleza EC win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
43. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ponte Preta · On: LUCAS CUNHA · Off: Danilo
44. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ponte Preta · On: Emanuell Silva Ferreira · Off: Karl Cachoeira Della Vedova Júnior Corrected
45. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ponte Preta · On: Emanuell Silva Ferreira · Off: David da Hora
46. 75′We said Fortaleza EC at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 10–71–19
47. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Vinicius Ferrari Andreoli · Ponte Preta
48. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Fortaleza EC win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
49. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Fortaleza EC · On: Nathan Fogaça · Off: ronald falkoski
50. 88′18 shots for Fortaleza EC, 13 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 3–90–6
51. 91′We said Fortaleza EC at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 2–94–4
52. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Ponte Preta · On: Diego Monteiro Leao · Off: Gustavo Telles
53. 93′2–2 at the end. Our 52% on Fortaleza EC misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
54. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Fortaleza EC win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
55. FTFULL TIME Ponte Preta 2–2 Fortaleza EC
56. FTPonte Preta 2–2 Fortaleza EC · Fortaleza EC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.