Operario-PR v Goias prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:00

Operario-PR 0–2 Goias OPERARIO-PR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Operario-PR win~~45%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.737

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Operario-PR win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Operario-PR was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Operario-PR v Goias
14′Much as we predicted: Operario-PR was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Operario-PR 0–1 Goias
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Operario-PR 0–1 Goias · João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Operario-PR 0–2 Goias · João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço
30′⚽ GOAL · 31' Operario-PR 0–2 Goias · Luiz Felipe Clemente de Almeida
37′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Operario-PR · On: Vinícius Diniz Dall Antonia · Off: Matheus Trindade
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Paraiba · Operario-PR
45′SECOND HALF Operario-PR 0–2 Goias
45′SUBSTITUTION · 47' Operario-PR · On: Índio · Off: Paraiba
47′SUBSTITUTION · 47' Operario-PR · On: Índio · Off: Paraiba
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Operario-PR · On: Brenno · Off: Hildeberto Pereira
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Goias · On: Jean Carlos · Off: Luiz Felipe Clemente de Almeida
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Goias · On: Jean Carlos · Off: Luiz Felipe Clemente de Almeida
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Goias · On: Halerrandrio dos Santos Feitosa · Off: João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Operario-PR · On: Dudu · Off: Juan Zuluaga
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Maguinho · Operario-PR
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Goias · On: Guilherme Baldoria de Camargo · Off: Filipe Machado
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Goias · On: Geirton Marques Aires · Off: Carlos Eduardo Amaral Pereira de Castro
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Goias · On: Luis Fellipe Campos Doria · Off: Lucas Ribeiro
FTFULL TIME Operario-PR 0–2 Goias
FTOperario-PR 0–2 Goias · Operario-PR win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Operario-PR win45%

Draw27%

Goias win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:30

VenueEstadio Germano Kruger

RefereeBruno Pereira Vasconcelos

Line-ups

Operario-PR

4-2-3-1

Goias

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Operario-PR

Goias

4Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Operario-PR	32	+1	48
12	Goias	32	−8	45

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Operario-PR

4-2-3-1

33 Vagner

26 Maguinho

16 Miranda

43 Joseph

27 Gabriel Feliciano

8 J. Zuluaga

39 Matheus Trindade

14 H. Pereira

88 Neto Paraiba

30 Pedro Vilhena

99 Caio Dantas

Coach · Valentim Alberto

Substitutes

1 · Elias Curzel

32 · Charles Raphael

17 · Nicolas

18 · Andre

4 · Klaus

2 · Mikael Doka

34 · Renan Gustavo

5 · Indio

20 · Vinicius Diniz

21 · Brenno Pereira

11 · Aylon

28 · Dudu Mosconi

Goias

Formation not confirmed

23 Tadeu

54 Djalma Silva

3 Luiz Felipe

14 Lucas Ribeiro

6 Nicolas

5 Filipe Machado

10 Lucas Lima

97 Lourenco

35 Luquinhas

18 Cadu

11 Felipe Clemente

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Thiago Rodrigues

4 · Ramon Menezes

66 · Danilo Cunha

25 · Luisao

88 · Brayann

21 · Jean Carlos

8 · Juninho

28 · Gege

55 · Baldoria

27 · Wellington Rato

77 · Halerrandrio

Our number · operario-pr winPublished 11 Oct 22:31

45% The market41%

Us45%

~~Market~~41%

We make Operario-PR a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · operario-pr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Operario-PR win	45%	41%	+4
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Goias win	28%	30%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	27%	−5
Operario-PR or draw	72%	70%	+3
Operario-PR clean sheet	37%	–	–
Goias clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 9.6 9.5 4.7 1 12.8 12.7 6.3 2.1 2 8.7 8.6 4.3 3 4.0 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Operario-PR down, Goias across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,220 Serie B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 320 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.43 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Operario-PR at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Goias away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Operario-PR, 1.00 for Goias. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 22:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~GOI 0–3 OPE · GOI 2–1 OPE · OPE 1–2 GOI · GOI 3–0 OPE

Form · last six in Serie B

OPERARIO-PR

WDWDLL3–0 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

GOIAS

LWWLLW0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventude	32	+18	59
2	Vila Nova	32	+13	58
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
5	Criciuma	32	+5	53
6	Atletico Goianiense	32	+10	52
7	CRB	32	+4	51
8	Sport Recife	32	+10	50
9	Operario-PR	32	+1	48
10	Cuiaba	32	+7	47
11	São Bernardo	32	+10	45
12	Goias	32	−8	45
13	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
14	Nautico Recife	32	−1	42
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	32	−11	33
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13