Operario-PR v Athletic Club prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 02:00

Operario-PR 1–0 Athletic Club OPERARIO-PR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Operario-PR win~~47%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.426

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Operario-PR win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Operario-PR was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Operario-PR v Athletic Club
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Brenno · Operario-PR
29′We published Operario-PR at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Operario-PR 1–0 Athletic Club
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Operario-PR win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
30′29′: Caio Dantas on the scoresheet for Operario-PR, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Operario-PR win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
45′SECOND HALF Operario-PR 1–0 Athletic Club
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Jhonatan · Athletic Club
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Athletic Club · On: Enzo Henrique dos Santos · Off: José Carlos Cracco Neto
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Athletic Club · On: Wilinton Aponza Carabali · Off: Dixon Vera
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Athletic Club · On: Philipe Sampaio Azevedo · Off: Pedro Henrique de Oliveira
48′HALF-TIME Operario-PR 1–0 Athletic Club
52′We said Operario-PR at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–45–22
52′11 shots for Operario-PR, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 33–45–22
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Operario-PR 1–1 Athletic Club
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Operario-PR win: 47% at kick-off, 33% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Operario-PR win 78%)
56′GOAL DISALLOWED · 56' Athletic Club
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Operario-PR win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Operario-PR win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 47%)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Athletic Club · On: Joao Victor Broad Moreira Guimaraes · Off: Felipe Negrucci Berdague
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Operario-PR · On: Hildeberto Pereira · Off: Dudu
70′We published Operario-PR at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Operario-PR win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Operario-PR · On: Miranda · Off: Maguinho
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Operario-PR · On: André · Off: Onitlasi Júnior de Moraes Rodrigues
79′We published Operario-PR at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Athletic Club · On: Maswel Ananias Silva · Off: Diogo·Batista de Souza
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Operario-PR · On: Mikael Doka · Off: Brenno
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Operario-PR · On: Leonardo Erig Daitx · Off: Caio Dantas
86′We published Operario-PR at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Operario-PR win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' André · Operario-PR
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Wilinton Aponza Carabali · Athletic Club
97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Athletic Club
99′A red card for Athletic Club on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 99–1–0
101′🟨 YELLOW · 90+11' Hildeberto Pereira · Operario-PR
103′1–0 after extra time. Our 47% on Operario-PR is graded on the score after ninety minutes. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Operario-PR 1–0 Athletic Club
FTOperario-PR 1–0 Athletic Club · Operario-PR win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Operario-PR are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Operario-PR 47%, draw 26%, Athletic Club 27%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Operario-PR v Athletic ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Operario-PR win47%

Draw26%

Athletic Club win27%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Germano Kruger

RefereeMaguielson Lima Barbosa

Line-ups

Operario-PR

4-4-2

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Operario-PR

Athletic Club

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Operario-PR	34	−2	48
14	Athletic Club	34	+1	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Operario-PR

4-4-2

1 Elias Martello Curzel

26 Maguinho

22 J. Cuenú

43 Joseph

27 Gabriel Feliciano

21 Brenno

20 Vinícius Diniz

5 Índio

6 Moraes

28 Dudu

99 Caio Dantas

Coach · Alberto Valentim

Substitutes

18 · André

4 · Klaus

2 · Mikael Doka

16 · Miranda

88 · Neto Paraíba

30 · Pedro Vilhena

14 · Hildeberto Pereira

33 · Vagner

8 · J. Zuluaga

17 · Nicolas Schulz

23 · Joao Gabriel

19 · Leonardo Erig Daitx

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

1 Luan Polli

22 Diogo Batista

3 Jhonatan

4 Lucas Belezi

6 Zeca

5 Felipe Negrucci

16 João Miguel

18 Pedro Oliveira

17 Kauan

21 D. Vera

9 Carlinhos

Coach · Alex

Substitutes

2 · Douglas Pelé

23 · Enzo

26 · Glauco

15 · Jota

13 · Philipe Sampaio

14 · Yago Santos

10 · Yarlen

20 · W. Aponza

12 · Tony

8 · Assis

7 · Bruninho

11 · Max

Our number · operario-pr winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 01:08 · locked at kick-off

47% The market50%

Us47%

~~Market~~50%

We make Operario-PR a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Operario-PR v Athletic Club~~1.44 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 48 v 44~~10 v 14

~~The market · Operario-PR win~~50% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Operario-PR win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Operario-PR win	47%	50%	−3
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Athletic Club win	27%	22%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	68%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	24%	0
Operario-PR or draw	73%	78%	−5
Operario-PR clean sheet	36%	–	–
Athletic Club clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.6 8.8 4.5 1 12.3 12.3 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Operario-PR down, Athletic Club across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,240 Serie B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 340 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Operario-PR at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Athletic Club away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Operario-PR, 1.03 for Athletic Club. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 23:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ATH 0–1 OPE · OPE 1–4 ATH · ATH 2–1 OPE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 19 Sept

OPERARIO-PR

WDLLLL2–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

ATHLETIC CLUB

DDLLDD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	34	+15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	34	+7	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	CRB	34	+3	52
8	Sport Recife	34	+8	51
9	Goias	34	−6	49
10	Operario-PR	34	−2	48
11	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
12	São Bernardo	34	+9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
14	Athletic Club	34	+1	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	34	−10	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14