Novorizontino v Ponte Preta prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 01:30

Novorizontino 5–1 Ponte Preta NOVORIZONTINO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Novorizontino win~~79%

~~The market said~~89%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.072

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.018

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Novorizontino win at 79%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Novorizontino 79% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 79–15–6
1′KICK-OFF Novorizontino v Ponte Preta
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Novorizontino 1–0 Ponte Preta
11′We said Novorizontino at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–0 · 93–5–1
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Novorizontino 1–0 Ponte Preta · Ronald Barcellos Arantes
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Novorizontino win: 79% at kick-off, 93% now
13′Ronald Barcellos Arantes scores for Novorizontino on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–6–1
24′We said Novorizontino at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Novorizontino 2–0 Ponte Preta · Ronald Barcellos Arantes
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Novorizontino win: 79% at kick-off, 99% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 25' Novorizontino 2–0 Ponte Preta · Juninho
25′25′ and it is 2–0: Juninho on the scoresheet for Novorizontino. 2–0 · 99–1–0
42′🟥 RED CARD · 43' Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas · Novorizontino
43′🟥 RED CARD · 43' Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas · Novorizontino
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Novorizontino 2–1 Ponte Preta · Juninho
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Novorizontino 2–1 Ponte Preta · Danilo
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Gustavo Felipe Almeida · Ponte Preta
45′PENALTY · 50' Novorizontino
45′⚽ GOAL · 53' Novorizontino 3–1 Ponte Preta · Romulo Azevedo Simão
45′SECOND HALF Novorizontino 3–1 Ponte Preta
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Gustavo Felipe Almeida · Ponte Preta
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Madson Ferreira dos Santos · Novorizontino
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Novorizontino 3–1 Ponte Preta · Danilo
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Novorizontino 3–1 Ponte Preta · Romulo Azevedo Simão
62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Gustavo Felipe Almeida · Ponte Preta
63′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Gustavo Felipe Almeida · Ponte Preta
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Novorizontino · On: Luiz Otavio Maria · Off: Ronald Barcellos Arantes
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Novorizontino · On: Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho · Off: Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Denis · Ponte Preta
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ponte Preta · On: Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade · Off: Danilo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ponte Preta · On: Gustavo Lopes Teles · Off: Rodrigo·Souza
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Novorizontino · On: Alexis·Alvarino · Off: Madson Ferreira dos Santos
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Novorizontino 4–1 Ponte Preta · Romulo Azevedo Simão
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' Novorizontino 4–1 Ponte Preta · Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Novorizontino · On: Marlon · Off: Juninho
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Gustavo Lopes Teles · Ponte Preta
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ponte Preta · On: Emanuell Silva Ferreira · Off: David da Hora
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Ponte Preta
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Denis · Ponte Preta
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Novorizontino 5–1 Ponte Preta · Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Novorizontino 5–1 Ponte Preta · Eduardo Brock
FTFULL TIME Novorizontino 5–1 Ponte Preta
FTNovorizontino 5–1 Ponte Preta · Novorizontino win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get a pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 22:45 · locked at kick-off

Novorizontino win79%

Draw15%

Ponte Preta win7%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 23:00

VenueDr. Jorge Ismael de Biase

RefereeJoao Vitor Gobi

Line-ups

Novorizontino

4-2-3-1

Ponte Preta

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Novorizontino

Ponte Preta

4Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Novorizontino

4-2-3-1

93 Jordi

2 Madson

3 Carlinhos

4 Patrick

5 Sander

50 Juninho

6 Luis Oyama

7 Ronald Barcellos

10 Romulo

30 Nicolas Careca

9 Carlao

Coach · Moreira Enderson

Substitutes

31 · Cesar Augusto

66 · Maykon Jesus

14 · Eduardo Brock

24 · J. Lora

22 · Ivan Alvarino

19 · Diego Galo

15 · Tavinho

28 · Marlon

27 · Diego Mathias

8 · C. Ortiz

16 · Vinicius Paiva

40 · Jardiel

Ponte Preta

3-4-2-1

30 Vinicius Ferrari

23 S. Palacios

15 Gabriel Caran

44 Gustavo Almeida

6 Juan Rodrigues

5 Rodrigo Souza

22 Denis

14 Danilo Barcelos

18 David da Hora

19 Danilo Peu

9 Brandao

Coach · Kleina Gilson

Substitutes

1 · Guilherme Viana

4 · M. L. Diego

32 · F. Di Mauro

35 · Gustavo Telles

16 · Karl

2 · R. Andrade

20 · Thevyn

21 · Vitor Ribeiro

17 · Nicolas Araujo

7 · E. Ferreira

Our number · novorizontino winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 22:45 · locked at kick-off

79% The market89%

Us79%

~~Market~~89%

We make Novorizontino a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 89%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · novorizontino win The market, margin stripped

Published at 78%, 79% now. The market has gone from 85% to 89% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Novorizontino win	79%	89%	−11
Draw	15%	8%	+7
Ponte Preta win	7%	3%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	73%	−17
Both teams to score	37%	37%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	88%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	34%	54%	−20
Novorizontino or draw	93%	97%	−3
Novorizontino clean sheet	59%	–	–
Ponte Preta clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 15.0%

0123450 5.5 3.0 1 12.8 6.7 2 15.0 7.9 2.1 3 12.1 6.2 4 7.4 3.8 5 3.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Novorizontino down, Ponte Preta across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,225 Serie B matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 325 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.71 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Novorizontino at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ponte Preta away: 0.00 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.43 goals for Novorizontino, 0.53 for Ponte Preta. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 22:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.71

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PON 0–2 NOV · NOV 2–1 PON · PON 1–0 NOV · NOV 2–0 PON

Form · last six in Serie B

NOVORIZONTINO

WDLDWW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

PONTE PRETA

LLWLLL0–2 · 0–6 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	33	+15	61
2	Juventude	33	+18	60
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
5	Atletico Goianiense	33	+10	53
6	Criciuma	32	+5	53
7	Sport Recife	33	+10	51
8	CRB	32	+4	51
9	Operario-PR	33	−1	48
10	Goias	33	−6	48
11	Cuiaba	33	+6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	+10	46
13	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
14	Nautico Recife	33	−3	42
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	33	−10	36
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13