Nautico Recife v Vila Nova prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:00

Nautico Recife 0–2 Vila Nova NAUTICO RECIFE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nautico Recife win~~42%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.731

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nautico Recife win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nautico Recife was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
23′Vila Nova find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
28′Vila Nova ahead on 22′ through Everton Galdino. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
29′Vila Nova ahead on 22′ through Everton Galdino. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nautico Recife win 14%)
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Nautico Recife win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Douglas Mendes · Vila Nova
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Nautico Recife win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nautico Recife win 14%)
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vila Nova · On: Tiago Pagnussat · Off: Douglas Mendes
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vila Nova · On: Willian Maranhão · Off: João Pedro Vieira
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Nautico Recife win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nautico Recife win 14%)
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Nautico Recife win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nautico Recife win 14%)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Nautico Recife win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nautico Recife win 14%)
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Willian Maranhão · Vila Nova
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Nautico Recife win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nautico Recife win 14%)
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Nautico Recife win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nautico Recife win 14%)
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Nautico Recife · On: Luiz Cláudio · Off: Paulo Sérgio
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Nautico Recife win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nautico Recife win 14%)
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Nautico Recife win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Vila Nova win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nautico Recife win 14%)
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Vila Nova · On: Emerson · Off: Everton Galdino
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Vila Nova · On: Nathan Camargo · Off: Marquinhos Gabriel
FTNautico Recife 0–2 Vila Nova · Nautico Recife win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nautico Recife win42%

Draw27%

Vila Nova win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:30

VenueEstadio dos Aflitos

RefereeFernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho

Line-ups

Nautico Recife

4-2-3-1

Vila Nova

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nautico Recife

Vila Nova

3Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Vila Nova	32	+13	58
14	Nautico Recife	32	−1	42

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nautico Recife

4-2-3-1

1 Muriel Becker

2 Arnaldo

15 Leo Indio

46 Gustavo Henrique

23 Igor Fernandes

8 Wenderson

41 Samuel Felix

19 Kaua Maranhao

10 Jean Carlos

7 Vinicius

9 Paulo Sergio

Coach · Pivetti Bruno

Substitutes

55 · G. Guruceaga

93 · Reginaldo

34 · Wanderson

6 · Ryan Carlos

13 · Indio

60 · Luiz Paulo

5 · Auremir

22 · P. Nunez

27 · Luiz Felipe

11 · Victor Andrade

16 · Luiz Claudio

72 · Derek

Vila Nova

4-2-3-1

1 Helton Leite

22 Hayner

4 Douglas Mendes

23 Jonathan Costa

13 Willian Formiga

5 Joao Vieira

15 Dudu

17 Everton Galdino

10 Marquinhos Gabriel

99 Janderson

49 Dellatorre

Coach · Ferreira Guto

Substitutes

29 · Dalberson

16 · Igor Carius

3 · Tiago Pagnussat

14 · Anderson Jesus

8 · Willian Maranhao

20 · Nathan Camargo

21 · Higor Meritao

11 · Ryan

18 · Enzo Bizzotto

31 · Dodo

9 · Lincoln

70 · Emerson Urso

Our number · nautico recife winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

42% The market35%

Us42%

~~Market~~35%

We make Nautico Recife a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nautico recife win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. The market has gone from 42% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nautico Recife win	42%	35%	+8
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Vila Nova win	31%	36%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	44%	45%	0
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−1
Nautico Recife or draw	69%	64%	+5
Nautico Recife clean sheet	33%	–	–
Vila Nova clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.8 9.5 5.3 1 11.6 12.6 7.0 2.6 2 7.8 8.5 4.7 3 3.5 3.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nautico Recife down, Vila Nova across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,220 Serie B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 320 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nautico Recife at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vila Nova away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Nautico Recife, 1.11 for Vila Nova. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VIL 4–3 NAU · NAU 1–2 VIL · VIL 2–0 NAU · VIL 1–0 NAU

Form · last six in Serie B

NAUTICO RECIFE

LDLWDL1–2 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

VILA NOVA

WDWWWD2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventude	32	+18	59
2	Vila Nova	32	+13	58
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
5	Criciuma	32	+5	53
6	Atletico Goianiense	32	+10	52
7	CRB	32	+4	51
8	Sport Recife	32	+10	50
9	Operario-PR	32	+1	48
10	Cuiaba	32	+7	47
11	São Bernardo	32	+10	45
12	Goias	32	−8	45
13	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
14	Nautico Recife	32	−1	42
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	32	−11	33
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13