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Nautico Recife v Novorizontino

Nautico Recife

0–2Full time

Novorizontino

Serie B · THU 8 OCT · Estadio dos Aflitos

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nautico Recife win34%

Draw27%

Novorizontino win39%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 22:59

Match information

THU 8 OCT · 23:30

Venue · Estadio dos Aflitos

Referee · Savio Pereira Sampaio

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Nautico Recife

4-2-3-1

1 Muriel Becker

2 Arnaldo

15 Leo Indio

3 Betao

23 Igor Fernandes

8 Wenderson

41 Samuel Felix

29 Junior Todinho

10 Jean Carlos

7 Vinicius

72 Derek

Coach · Pivetti Bruno

Substitutes

55 · G. Guruceaga

93 · Reginaldo

34 · Wanderson

6 · Ryan Carlos

46 · Gustavo Henrique

5 · Auremir

22 · P. Nunez

27 · Luiz Felipe

11 · Victor Andrade

24 · B. Borasi

19 · Kaua Maranhao

9 · Paulo Sergio

Novorizontino

4-4-2

93 Jordi

2 Madson

26 Gabriel Bahia

4 Patrick

5 Sander

41 Reidiney

17 Matheus Bianqui

6 Luis Oyama

30 Nicolas Careca

10 Romulo

11 Robson

Coach · Moreira Enderson

Substitutes

31 · Cesar Augusto

66 · Maykon Jesus

14 · Eduardo Brock

3 · Carlinhos

18 · Leo Naldi

19 · Diego Galo

28 · Marlon

50 · Juninho

77 · Helio Borges

9 · Carlao

7 · Ronald Barcellos

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nautico Recife

4-2-3-1

1 Muriel Becker

2 Arnaldo

15 Leo Indio

3 Betao

23 Igor Fernandes

8 Wenderson

41 Samuel Felix

29 Junior Todinho

10 Jean Carlos

7 Vinicius

72 Derek

Coach · Pivetti Bruno

Substitutes

55 · G. Guruceaga

93 · Reginaldo

34 · Wanderson

6 · Ryan Carlos

46 · Gustavo Henrique

5 · Auremir

22 · P. Nunez

27 · Luiz Felipe

11 · Victor Andrade

24 · B. Borasi

19 · Kaua Maranhao

9 · Paulo Sergio

Novorizontino

4-4-2

93 Jordi

2 Madson

26 Gabriel Bahia

4 Patrick

5 Sander

41 Reidiney

17 Matheus Bianqui

6 Luis Oyama

30 Nicolas Careca

10 Romulo

11 Robson

Coach · Moreira Enderson

Substitutes

31 · Cesar Augusto

66 · Maykon Jesus

14 · Eduardo Brock

3 · Carlinhos

18 · Leo Naldi

19 · Diego Galo

28 · Marlon

50 · Juninho

77 · Helio Borges

9 · Carlao

7 · Ronald Barcellos

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · novorizontino winPublished 8 Oct 22:59

39% The market55%

Us39%

~~Market~~55%

We make Novorizontino a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nautico Recife win	34%	20%	+14
Draw	27%	25%	+3
Novorizontino win	39%	55%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	44%	54%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−10
Nautico Recife or draw	61%	45%	+16
Nautico Recife clean sheet	29%	–	–
Novorizontino clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.0 11.1 7.1 3.0 1 10.2 12.8 8.0 3.4 2 6.0 7.4 4.7 3 2.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nautico Recife down, Novorizontino across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,218 Serie B matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.7% of games this season, across 318 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nautico Recife at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Novorizontino away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Nautico Recife, 1.27 for Novorizontino. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NOV 2–2 NAU · NOV 6–0 NAU · NAU 3–1 NOV

Form · last six in Serie B

NAUTICO RECIFE

WLDLWD1–0 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 1–1

NOVORIZONTINO

WWDLDW3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventude	32	+18	59
2	Vila Nova	32	+13	58
3	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
4	Novorizontino	31	+25	54
5	Criciuma	31	+6	53
6	Atletico Goianiense	32	+10	52
7	CRB	32	+4	51
8	Sport Recife	32	+10	50
9	Operario-PR	32	+1	48
10	Cuiaba	32	+7	47
11	São Bernardo	32	+10	45
12	Goias	32	−8	45
13	Nautico Recife	31	+1	42
14	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
15	Ceara	31	−5	39
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	32	−11	33
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Nautico Recife

Novorizontino

Match statistics

Line-ups

Nautico Recife

Novorizontino

Head to head

Form · last six in Serie B

The table