Nautico Recife v Avai prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nautico RecifeDrawAvai

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Nautico Recife 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nautico Recife are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nautico Recife 46%, draw 27%, Avai 27%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Nautico Recife v AvaiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Nautico Recife win46%

Draw27%

Avai win27%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 36

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nautico Recife

Avai

12Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
17	Avai	35	−12	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nautico recife winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Nautico Recife a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nautico Recife v Avai~~1.37 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 22 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 43 v 37~~15 v 17

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nautico Recife win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Avai win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Nautico Recife or draw	73%	–	–
Nautico Recife clean sheet	37%	–	–
Avai clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 9.6 9.6 4.7 1 13.1 12.5 6.2 2.1 2 8.8 8.6 4.2 3 4.1 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nautico Recife down, Avai across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,247 Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 347 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nautico Recife at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Avai away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Nautico Recife, 0.99 for Avai. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AVA 2–0 NAU · NAU 1–2 AVA · AVA 2–0 NAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 22 Sept

NAUTICO RECIFE

LWDLLD0–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

AVAI

LLWWDL0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Novorizontino	35	+32	64
2	Vila Nova	35	+14	62
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	35	+12	61
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	CRB	35	+4	55
7	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
8	Atletico Goianiense	35	+9	54
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	São Bernardo	35	+10	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	+2	47
13	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	35	−12	37
18	Londrina	35	−7	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	35	−55	15