Londrina v Cuiaba prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 02:00

Londrina 1–0 Cuiaba LONDRINA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Londrina win~~39%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.568

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Londrina win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Londrina v Cuiaba
2′Little has changed for our model: Londrina 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Londrina win 35%)
35′Cuiaba have had 9 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–38–29
36′Londrina ahead on 35′ through Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–8
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Londrina 1–0 Cuiaba · Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Londrina win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Londrina win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 39%)
37′We said Londrina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–21–8
38′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 72–21–8
45′HALF-TIME Londrina 1–0 Cuiaba
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cuiaba · On: Vinicius Peixoto · Off: David Miguel de Souza Arcanjo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Londrina · On: Igor Ruan Sousa dos Santos · Off: William Pottker
45′SECOND HALF Londrina 1–0 Cuiaba
49′14 shots for Cuiaba, 3 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–6
50′We said Londrina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
55′Cuiaba have had 17 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Londrina win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
64′We said Londrina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Londrina · On: Joao Coni · Off: Victor Hugo de Faria Mota
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Londrina · On: Pablo Dyego · Off: Guilherme Maciel Dantas
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cuiaba · On: Eliel Chrystian · Off: Jean Dias da Costa
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cuiaba · On: Weverson Rodrigues Vicente Do Nascimento · Off: Igor
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cuiaba · On: Luiz Otavio · Off: João Basso
73′We said Londrina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cuiaba · On: Wesley Dias Claudino · Off: Pedro Henrique
79′20 shots for Cuiaba, 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Londrina win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
80′We said Londrina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Londrina · On: Gabriel Santos Cordeiro Lacerda · Off: Geovane Santana Meurer
86′We said Londrina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Tárik Michel Kedes Boschetti · Londrina
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Londrina win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Londrina 1–0 Cuiaba
FTLondrina 1–0 Cuiaba · Londrina win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Londrina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Londrina 39%, draw 28%, Cuiaba 33%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Londrina v CuiabaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Londrina win39%

Draw28%

Cuiaba win33%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio do Cafe

RefereeRafael Rodrigo Klein

Line-ups

Londrina

4-1-4-1

Cuiaba

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Londrina

Cuiaba

7Days since last match9

Last match: 13 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Cuiaba	33	+6	47
18	Londrina	33	−7	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Londrina

4-1-4-1

1 Luan

75 Kauê Leonardo

44 Caio Rodrigues

4 Wallace

34 Heron

5 Tárik

7 Victor Hugo

38 Geovane Meurer

77 Guilherme Dantas

28 Herbert

23 William Pottker

Coach · Hugo Chacon

Substitutes

18 · Guilherme Cachoeira

2 · Nino Paraíba

17 · João Coni

30 · Mauricio Kozlinski

9 · Gilberto

13 · André Dhominique Queiroz Santiago da Silva

33 · Kevyn

15 · Gabriel Lacerda

21 · Cainã Santos Da Silva

99 · Igor Bahia

11 · Pablo Dyego

22 · Artur

Cuiaba

3-4-2-1

1 João Carlos

13 João Basso

5 Calebe

4 Vitor Mendes

2 Igor Inocêncio

30 Raul

20 David Miguel

36 Lorenzo

41 Kauan

77 Jean Dias

96 Pedro Henrique

Coach · Eduardo Barros

Substitutes

53 · Weverson

11 · Eliel

29 · Vinicius Peixoto

91 · Luisão

70 · Wesley Dias

12 · Busatto

97 · Luiz Otávio

14 · Eric

Our number · londrina winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 20 Oct 20:36 · locked at kick-off

39% The market33%

Us39%

~~Market~~33%

We make Londrina a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Londrina v Cuiaba~~1.20 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 29 v 47~~18 v 11

~~The market · Londrina win~~33% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Londrina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Londrina win	39%	33%	+6
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Cuiaba win	33%	37%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Londrina or draw	67%	63%	+4
Londrina clean sheet	34%	–	–
Cuiaba clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.4 11.2 6.0 2.2 1 12.3 13.0 7.1 2.6 2 7.3 7.8 4.2 3 2.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Londrina down, Cuiaba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,239 Serie B matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 339 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Londrina at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cuiaba away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Londrina, 1.09 for Cuiaba. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 23:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CUI 2–2 LON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 13 Sept

LONDRINA

WLLLLD6–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

CUIABA

DWLWDL1–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	34	+15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	34	+7	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	CRB	34	+3	52
8	Sport Recife	34	+8	51
9	Goias	34	−6	49
10	Operario-PR	34	−2	48
11	Cuiaba	33	+6	47
12	São Bernardo	34	+9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
14	Athletic Club	34	+1	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	34	−10	37
18	Londrina	33	−7	29
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14