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Juventude v São Bernardo

Juventude

2–2Full time

São Bernardo

Serie B · SUN 11 OCT · Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Juventude 2–2 São Bernardo JUVENTUDE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juventude win~~50%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.797

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.952

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juventude win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Juventude was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–29–21
41′23′ and it is 1–0: sam rodrigo on the scoresheet for Juventude. 1–0 · 82–15–3
52′São Bernardo ahead on 45′ through Felipe Garcia. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–45–18
54′Lucas Fernandes scores for São Bernardo on 49′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–25–68
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' São Bernardo win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Juventude win 7%)
63′Lucas Fernandes scores for São Bernardo on 49′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–22–73
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Juventude win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was São Bernardo win 3%)
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' São Bernardo win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Juventude win 7%)
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva · São Bernardo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' São Bernardo · On: Pedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva · Off: Felipe Garcia Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' São Bernardo · On: Lucas Rian Santos Oliveira · Off: Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes Corrected
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Juventude 2–2 São Bernardo · Lucas Fernandes
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Juventude 2–2 São Bernardo · Raí da Silva Pessanha
75′69′ and it is 2–2: Raí da Silva Pessanha on the scoresheet for Juventude. 2–2 · 17–73–9
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' São Bernardo · On: Hyoran · Off: Lucas Fernandes
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 17% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was São Bernardo win 9%)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 5% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' São Bernardo win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 17% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was São Bernardo win 9%)
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 5% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' São Bernardo win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 17% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was São Bernardo win 9%)
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 5% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' São Bernardo win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Juventude · On: Alan Kardec · Off: Marcos Paulo Corrected
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 17% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was São Bernardo win 9%)
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 5% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' São Bernardo win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Juventude · On: Luan Martins·Goncalves · Off: Gabriel Pires Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' São Bernardo · On: Hugo Sanches Nogueira Ribeiro Magalhães · Off: Pará Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' São Bernardo · On: Foguinho · Off: Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva Corrected
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Rodrigo Ferreira · São Bernardo
95′We said Juventude at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 2–2 · 0–100–0
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 0% now
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Juventude win: 50% at kick-off, 17% now
FTFULL TIME Juventude 2–2 São Bernardo
FTJuventude 2–2 São Bernardo · Juventude win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Juventude win50%

Draw29%

São Bernardo win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstádio Alfredo Jaconi

RefereeFelipe Fernandes de Lima

Line-ups

Juventude

3-4-3

São Bernardo

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Juventude

São Bernardo

4Days since last match5

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventude	32	+18	59
11	São Bernardo	32	+10	45

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Juventude

3-4-3

93 Jandrei

34 Rodrigo Sam

4 Messias

47 Marcos Paulo

2 Rai Ramos

75 Rai Silva

29 Gabriel Pires

16 Diogo Barbosa

11 Fabio Lima

25 Alisson Safira

10 MP

Coach · Barbieri Mauricio

Substitutes

12 · Pedro Rocha

3 · Titi

6 · Wadson

97 · Gabriel Pinheiro

22 · Nathan Santos

8 · Lucas Mineiro

5 · Luan Martins

26 · I. Ly

9 · Alan Kardec

17 · M. Castro

70 · Juan Christian

72 · Lucas Alves

São Bernardo

5-4-1

1 Alex Alves

2 Rodrigo Ferreira

77 Marcao Silva

35 Jemerson

97 Augusto

6 Para

31 Lucas Fernandes

14 Lucas Lima

26 Dudu Miraima

29 Pedrinho

9 Felipe Garcia

Coach · Catala Ricardo

Substitutes

12 · Junior Oliveira

44 · Caio Garcez

16 · Jota

21 · Hugo Sanches

42 · Hyoran

8 · Foguinho

30 · Breninho

17 · Romisson

7 · Lucas Rian

37 · D. Davi

11 · Pedro Vitor

27 · Echapora

Our number · juventude winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

50% The market60%

Us50%

~~Market~~60%

We make Juventude a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · juventude win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventude win	50%	60%	−10
Draw	29%	25%	+4
São Bernardo win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	33%	44%	−11
Both teams to score	37%	43%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	60%	69%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	15%	24%	−9
Juventude or draw	79%	85%	−6
Juventude clean sheet	49%	–	–
São Bernardo clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.1%

0123450 13.5 9.7 3.5 1 17.1 12.3 4.5 2 11.0 7.9 2.9 3 4.8 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventude down, São Bernardo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,220 Serie B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 320 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juventude at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). São Bernardo away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Juventude, 0.73 for São Bernardo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAO 0–1 JUV

Form · last six in Serie B

JUVENTUDE

WLLWWW2–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

SÃO BERNARDO

LWWDWL1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventude	32	+18	59
2	Vila Nova	32	+13	58
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
5	Criciuma	32	+5	53
6	Atletico Goianiense	32	+10	52
7	CRB	32	+4	51
8	Sport Recife	32	+10	50
9	Operario-PR	32	+1	48
10	Cuiaba	32	+7	47
11	São Bernardo	32	+10	45
12	Goias	32	−8	45
13	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
14	Nautico Recife	32	−1	42
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	32	−11	33
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13