Juventude v Nautico Recife prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

JuventudeDrawNautico Recife

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Juventude 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Juventude are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Juventude 57%, draw 25%, Nautico Recife 18%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Juventude v Nautico RecifeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Juventude win57%

Draw25%

Nautico Recife win18%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstádio Alfredo Jaconi

RefereeBruno Mota Correia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Juventude

Nautico Recife

9Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 19 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · juventude winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 02:05 · locked at kick-off

57% The market62%

Us57%

~~Market~~62%

We make Juventude a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Juventude v Nautico Recife~~1.57 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 61 v 43~~3 v 15

~~The market · Juventude win~~62% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Juventude win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventude win	57%	62%	−5
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Nautico Recife win	18%	15%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	49%	−9
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	72%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	29%	−9
Juventude or draw	82%	85%	−3
Juventude clean sheet	49%	–	–
Nautico Recife clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 10.2 7.5 2.7 1 15.8 11.2 4.2 2 12.2 8.8 3.2 3 6.5 4.6 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventude down, Nautico Recife across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,245 Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 345 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juventude at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nautico Recife away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Juventude, 0.73 for Nautico Recife. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NAU 0–0 JUV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 19 Sept

JUVENTUDE

LWWWDD1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–2

NAUTICO RECIFE

LWDLLD0–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	34	+15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
8	CRB	34	+3	52
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
12	São Bernardo	34	+9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	34	−10	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14