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Model 1.2

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Goias v Nautico Recife

Goias
0–0Full time
Nautico Recife

Serie B · MON 19 OCT · Estádio da Serrinha

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 02:00
Goias 0–0 Nautico Recife GOIAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Goias win53%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.887
The market’s Brier score0.937

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Goias win at 53%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Goias 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Goias v Nautico Recife
  4. 34′Goias have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 44–35–21
  5. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  6. 42′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–20
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Goias 0–0 Nautico Recife
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Goias 0–0 Nautico Recife
  9. 47′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–19
  10. 49′14 shots for Goias, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 38–43–19
  11. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Goias win 40%)
  12. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–47–18
  13. 57′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–17
  14. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Nautico Recife · On: Kauan Almeida da Costa · Off: Paulo Sérgio
  15. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Nautico Recife · On: Todinho · Off: Derek Freitas Ribeiro
  16. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  17. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Goias · On: Carlos Eduardo de Sousa Leopoldino · Off: João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço
  18. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Goias · On: Rodrigo Soares · Off: Nicolas Vichiatto Da Silva
  19. 65′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
  20. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Goias · On: Geirton Marques Aires · Off: Carlos Eduardo Amaral Pereira de Castro
  21. 71′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
  22. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Nautico Recife · On: Victor Andrade · Off: Benjamín Borasi
  23. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
  24. 76′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
  25. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Goias · On: Wellington Rato · Off: Lucas Rodrigues
  26. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Goias · On: Jean Carlos · Off: Lucas Lima
  27. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nautico Recife · On: Samuel · Off: Luiz Felipe
  28. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Nautico Recife · On: Auremir · Off: Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira
  29. 81′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–7
  30. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  31. 84′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–5
  32. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Filipe Machado · Goias
  33. 90′22 shots for Goias, 16 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 5–92–3
  34. 91′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–2
  35. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
  36. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Luiz Felipe Clemente de Almeida · Goias
  37. FTFULL TIME Goias 0–0 Nautico Recife
  38. FTGoias 0–0 Nautico Recife · Goias win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Goias are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Goias 53%, draw 25%, Nautico Recife 22%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Goias v Nautico RecifeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Goias win53%
Draw25%
Nautico Recife win22%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstádio da Serrinha

RefereeYuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz

Line-ups

Goias

4-1-4-1

Nautico Recife

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Goias

Nautico Recife

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Goias33−648
16Nautico Recife33−342

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Goias

4-1-4-1

23 Tadeu

54 Djalma Silva

4 Ramon Menezes

14 Lucas Ribeiro

6 Nicolas

5 Filipe Machado

10 Lucas Lima

97 Lourenço

35 Luquinhas

18 Cadu

11 Felipe Clemente

Coach · Mozart

Substitutes

27 · Wellington Rato

1 · Thiago Rodrigues

2 · Rodrigo Soares

25 · Luis Fellipe

40 · Kadu

8 · Juninho

21 · Jean Carlos Alves Ferreira

77 · Halerrandrio

28 · Gegê

12 · Ezequiel

66 · Danilo Cunha

55 · Guilherme Baldória

Nautico Recife

4-2-3-1

55 G. Guruceaga

93 Reginaldo Lopes

3 Alberto

23 Igor Fernandes

6 Ryan

27 Luiz Felipe

8 Wenderson

72 Derek

7 Vinícius

24 B. Borasi

9 Paulo Sérgio

Coach · Bruno Pivetti

Substitutes

11 · Victor Andrade

16 · Luiz Cláudio

34 · Wanderson

5 · Auremir

60 · Luiz Paulo

32 · Leonardo Joventino Honorio

22 · P. Núñez

29 · Júnior Todinho

41 · Samuel

2 · Arnaldo

19 · Kaua Almeida da Costa

Our number · goias winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
53% The market57%
Us53%
Market57%

We make Goias a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Goias v Nautico Recife1.57 – 0.91
Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 14 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 48 v 429 v 16
The market · Goias win57% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 13 OCT 05:3219 OCT 23:05
Our probability · Goias win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Goias win53%57%−4
Draw25%24%+1
Nautico Recife win22%19%+3
Over 2.5 goals45%52%−7
Both teams to score47%52%−5
Over 1.5 goals70%76%−6
Over 3.5 goals24%32%−8
Goias or draw78%81%−3
Goias clean sheet40%––
Nautico Recife clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%
0123450 8.5 7.8 3.5 1 13.2 11.7 5.4 2 10.2 9.1 4.2 3 5.4 4.8 2.2 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Goias down, Nautico Recife across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsNAU 0–1 GOI · NAU 3–2 GOI · GOI 0–1 NAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 14 Sept

GOIAS

WWLLWW3–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–0

NAUTICO RECIFE

DLWDLL3–3 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vila Nova34+1562
2Novorizontino34+3161
3Juventude34+1861
4Fortaleza EC34+1260
5Criciuma34+759
6Atletico Goianiense34+1054
7CRB34+352
8Sport Recife34+851
9Goias33−648
10Operario-PR34−248
11Cuiaba33+647
12São Bernardo34+946
13Botafogo SP34044
14Athletic Club34+144
15Ceara34−543
16Nautico Recife33−342
17Avai34−1037
18Londrina33−729
19America Mineiro34−3220
20Ponte Preta34−5514

The competition's standings before kick-off.