

Goias v Nautico Recife
Goias
Nautico RecifeSerie B · MON 19 OCT · Estádio da Serrinha
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Goias win at 53%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Goias 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
- 1′KICK-OFF Goias v Nautico Recife
- 34′Goias have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 44–35–21
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
- 42′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–20
- 45′HALF-TIME Goias 0–0 Nautico Recife
- 46′SECOND HALF Goias 0–0 Nautico Recife
- 47′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–19
- 49′14 shots for Goias, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 38–43–19
- 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Goias win 40%)
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–47–18
- 57′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–17
- 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Nautico Recife · On: Kauan Almeida da Costa · Off: Paulo Sérgio
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Nautico Recife · On: Todinho · Off: Derek Freitas Ribeiro
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Goias · On: Carlos Eduardo de Sousa Leopoldino · Off: João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Goias · On: Rodrigo Soares · Off: Nicolas Vichiatto Da Silva
- 65′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Goias · On: Geirton Marques Aires · Off: Carlos Eduardo Amaral Pereira de Castro
- 71′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Nautico Recife · On: Victor Andrade · Off: Benjamín Borasi
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
- 76′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Goias · On: Wellington Rato · Off: Lucas Rodrigues
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Goias · On: Jean Carlos · Off: Lucas Lima
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nautico Recife · On: Samuel · Off: Luiz Felipe
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Nautico Recife · On: Auremir · Off: Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira
- 81′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–7
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
- 84′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–5
- 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Filipe Machado · Goias
- 90′22 shots for Goias, 16 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 5–92–3
- 91′We said Goias at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–2
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Goias win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Luiz Felipe Clemente de Almeida · Goias
- FTFULL TIME Goias 0–0 Nautico Recife
- FTGoias 0–0 Nautico Recife · Goias win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Goias are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Goias 53%, draw 25%, Nautico Recife 22%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
Goias win53%
Nautico Recife win22%Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 23:30
RoundMatchday 34
VenueEstádio da Serrinha
RefereeYuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz
Match timeline
All events
GoiasMIN
Nautico RecifeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Goias
4-1-4-1
Nautico Recife
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Goias
Nautico Recife
Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B
Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Goias
4-1-4-1
23 Tadeu
54 Djalma Silva
4 Ramon Menezes
14 Lucas Ribeiro
6 Nicolas
5 Filipe Machado
10 Lucas Lima
97 Lourenço
35 Luquinhas
18 Cadu
11 Felipe Clemente
Coach · Mozart
Substitutes
27 · Wellington Rato
1 · Thiago Rodrigues
2 · Rodrigo Soares
25 · Luis Fellipe
40 · Kadu
8 · Juninho
21 · Jean Carlos Alves Ferreira
77 · Halerrandrio
28 · Gegê
12 · Ezequiel
66 · Danilo Cunha
55 · Guilherme Baldória
Nautico Recife
4-2-3-1
55 G. Guruceaga
93 Reginaldo Lopes
3 Alberto
23 Igor Fernandes
6 Ryan
27 Luiz Felipe
8 Wenderson
72 Derek
7 Vinícius
24 B. Borasi
9 Paulo Sérgio
Coach · Bruno Pivetti
Substitutes
11 · Victor Andrade
16 · Luiz Cláudio
34 · Wanderson
5 · Auremir
60 · Luiz Paulo
32 · Leonardo Joventino Honorio
22 · P. Núñez
29 · Júnior Todinho
41 · Samuel
2 · Arnaldo
19 · Kaua Almeida da Costa
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Goias
4-1-4-1
23 Tadeu
54 Djalma Silva
4 Ramon Menezes
14 Lucas Ribeiro
6 Nicolas
5 Filipe Machado
10 Lucas Lima
97 Lourenço
35 Luquinhas
18 Cadu
11 Felipe Clemente
Coach · Mozart
Substitutes
27 · Wellington Rato
1 · Thiago Rodrigues
2 · Rodrigo Soares
25 · Luis Fellipe
40 · Kadu
8 · Juninho
21 · Jean Carlos Alves Ferreira
77 · Halerrandrio
28 · Gegê
12 · Ezequiel
66 · Danilo Cunha
55 · Guilherme Baldória
Nautico Recife
4-2-3-1
55 G. Guruceaga
93 Reginaldo Lopes
3 Alberto
23 Igor Fernandes
6 Ryan
27 Luiz Felipe
8 Wenderson
72 Derek
7 Vinícius
24 B. Borasi
9 Paulo Sérgio
Coach · Bruno Pivetti
Substitutes
11 · Victor Andrade
16 · Luiz Cláudio
34 · Wanderson
5 · Auremir
60 · Luiz Paulo
32 · Leonardo Joventino Honorio
22 · P. Núñez
29 · Júnior Todinho
41 · Samuel
2 · Arnaldo
19 · Kaua Almeida da Costa
We make Goias a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 57% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goias win | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| Nautico Recife win | 22% | 19% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 52% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 76% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 32% | −8 |
| Goias or draw | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Goias clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| Nautico Recife clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 14 Sept
GOIAS
NAUTICO RECIFE
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 34 | +15 | 62 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 34 | +31 | 61 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | +18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 34 | +12 | 60 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 34 | +7 | 59 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 34 | +10 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 34 | +3 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | +8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | −6 | 48 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 34 | −2 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 34 | +9 | 46 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 34 | +1 | 44 |
| 15 | Ceara | 34 | −5 | 43 |
| 16 | Nautico Recife | 33 | −3 | 42 |
| 17 | Avai | 34 | −10 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | −7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | −32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 34 | −55 | 14 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Vila Nova
Novorizontino
Juventude
Fortaleza EC
Criciuma
Atletico Goianiense
CRB
Sport Recife
Operario-PR
Cuiaba
São Bernardo
Botafogo SP
Athletic Club
Ceara
Avai
Londrina
America Mineiro
Ponte Preta