Fortaleza EC v CRB prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Fortaleza EC 2–2 CRB FORTALEZA EC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fortaleza EC win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.837

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.831

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fortaleza EC win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Fortaleza EC 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
5′Little has changed for our model: Fortaleza EC 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–25
6′Little has changed for our model: Fortaleza EC 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
11′11′ and it is 0–0: Fortaleza EC have scored. 0–0 · 47–29–25
14′We said Fortaleza EC at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–8
14′⚽ GOAL · 11' Fortaleza EC 1–0 CRB · Maílton
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
19′11′ and it is 1–0: Maílton on the scoresheet for Fortaleza EC. 1–0 · 76–17–7
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
21′We said Fortaleza EC at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Fortaleza EC win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 44' Fortaleza EC 1–0 CRB · Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Fortaleza EC 1–1 CRB · Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues
45′SECOND HALF Fortaleza EC 2–1 CRB
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Fortaleza EC 2–1 CRB · Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fortaleza EC · On: Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza · Off: Rodrigo Oliveira dos Santos
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Fortaleza EC 2–1 CRB · Pedro Castro
52′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Fortaleza EC · On: Vitor Ferreira · Off: Luiz Fernando
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Fortaleza EC 2–2 CRB · Pedro Castro
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Fortaleza EC 2–2 CRB · Crystopher
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Fortaleza EC · On: Nathan Fogaça · Off: Juan Camilo Cantillo
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Fortaleza EC · On: Lucas Crispim · Off: Lucas Sasha
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' CRB · On: Vinicius Barata · Off: Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Fortaleza EC · On: Welliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus · Off: Pedro Henrique
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Nathan Fogaça · Fortaleza EC
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CRB · On: Geovane · Off: Daniel Sampaio Simões
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' CRB · On: Douglas Baggio · Off: Mikael Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Lucas Crispim · Fortaleza EC
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' CRB · On: Ygor Catatau · Off: Dadá Belmonte
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' CRB · On: Luizão · Off: Pedro Castro
FTFULL TIME Fortaleza EC 2–2 CRB
FTFortaleza EC 2–2 CRB · Fortaleza EC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

Fortaleza EC win48%

Draw27%

CRB win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Castelão

RefereeDavi de Oliveira Lacerda

Line-ups

Fortaleza EC

4-3-3

CRB

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fortaleza EC

CRB

5Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
8	CRB	32	+4	51

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fortaleza EC

4-3-3

1 Joao Ricardo

22 Mailton

3 Lucas Gazal

6 T. Cardona

13 Mauricio Junior

88 Lucas Sasha

8 Ronald

29 Rodrigo

21 J. Cantillo

32 Luiz Fernando

16 Pedro Henrique

Coach · Paulo Autuori

Substitutes

25 · Vinicius Silvestre

23 · Neris

12 · Henrique Kaio

10 · Lucas Crispim

20 · Jailson

37 · Ryan

38 · Lucca Prior

17 · Nathan Fogaca

75 · Rodriguinho

31 · Welliton

77 · Paulo Baya

11 · Vitinho

CRB

4-1-4-1

1 Vitor Caetano

32 Hereda

33 Lyncon

22 Bressan

36 Lucas Lovat

21 Pedro Castro

17 Thiaguinho

8 Crystopher Ribeiro

10 Danielzinho

97 Dada Belmonte

28 Mikael

Coach · Matias Fabio

Substitutes

12 · Matheus Albino

2 · Kevin

27 · Fabio Alemao

44 · Henri

16 · Maycon

50 · Luizao

26 · Estevao

18 · Geovane

20 · Vinicius Barata

95 · Ygor Catatau

9 · Joao Neto

7 · Douglas Baggio

Our number · fortaleza ec winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Fortaleza EC a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fortaleza ec win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. The market has gone from 53% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortaleza EC win	48%	50%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	−1
CRB win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Fortaleza EC or draw	75%	77%	−2
Fortaleza EC clean sheet	39%	–	–
CRB clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 9.1 8.6 4.2 1 13.0 12.4 5.9 2 9.4 8.9 4.3 3 4.6 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortaleza EC down, CRB across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,225 Serie B matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 325 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fortaleza EC at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). CRB away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Fortaleza EC, 0.96 for CRB. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CRB 1–1 FOR

Form · last six in Serie B

FORTALEZA EC

WDWDDW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

CRB

LWLWLW0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	33	+15	61
2	Juventude	33	+18	60
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
5	Atletico Goianiense	33	+10	53
6	Criciuma	32	+5	53
7	Sport Recife	33	+10	51
8	CRB	32	+4	51
9	Operario-PR	33	−1	48
10	Goias	33	−6	48
11	Cuiaba	33	+6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	+10	46
13	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
14	Nautico Recife	33	−3	42
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	33	−10	36
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13