Cuiaba v Avai prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:00

Cuiaba 0–1 Avai CUIABA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cuiaba win~~50%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.948

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.078

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cuiaba win at 50%.
0′Much as we predicted: Cuiaba was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–21
1′KICK-OFF Cuiaba v Avai
15′Much as we predicted: Cuiaba was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–32–21
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' David Miguel de Souza Arcanjo · Cuiaba
39′⚽ GOAL · 40' Cuiaba 0–0 Avai · Daniel Penha
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Cuiaba 0–1 Avai · Daniel Penha
45′SECOND HALF Cuiaba 0–1 Avai
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cuiaba · On: Luiz Otavio · Off: Raul Lô Gonçalves
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cuiaba · On: Vinicius Peixoto · Off: David Miguel de Souza Arcanjo
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' João Vitor · Avai
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cuiaba · On: Pedro Henrique · Off: Fabio Gomes
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Avai · On: Paulo Vitor · Off: Luiz Henrique
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cuiaba · On: Ramon de Araujo Silva Moutinho · Off: Igor
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Avai · On: Léo Gamalho · Off: Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreira
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cuiaba · On: Rodrigo Antonio Rodrigues · Off: Jean Dias da Costa
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Avai · On: Wallison · Off: João Vitor
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Avai · On: Gaspar · Off: Jean Lucas Figueiredo
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Daniel Penha · Avai
FTFULL TIME Cuiaba 0–1 Avai
FTCuiaba 0–1 Avai · Cuiaba win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cuiaba win50%

Draw28%

Avai win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:30

VenueArena Pantanal

RefereeAfro Rocha De Carvalho Filho

Line-ups

Cuiaba

3-4-2-1

Avai

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cuiaba

Avai

4Days since last match4

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Cuiaba	32	+7	47
17	Avai	32	−11	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cuiaba

3-4-2-1

1 Joao Carlos

13 Joao Basso

5 Calebe Costa

4 Vitor Mendes

2 Igor Inocencio

30 Raul

20 David Miguel

36 Lorenzo

41 Kauan Cristtyan

77 Jean Dias

90 Fabio Gomes

Coach · Eduardo Barros

Substitutes

12 · G. Busatto

14 · Eric Melo

97 · Luiz Otavio

53 · Weverson

26 · Joao Vitor

70 · Wesley Dias

96 · H. Pedro

27 · Rodrigo Rodrigues

11 · Eliel

91 · Luis Soares

7 · Ramon

29 · Vinicius Peixoto

Avai

4-1-4-1

94 Bruno Ferreira

22 Joao Vitor

3 Allyson

38 Jefferson Maciel

36 Douglas Teixeira

77 Ze Ricardo

14 Daniel Penha

95 Wenderson

8 Luiz Henrique

10 Jean Lucas

19 Caio Suassuna

Coach · Marquinhos

Substitutes

1 · Igor Bohn

2 · Wallison

35 · Pedrao

66 · Quaresma

25 · Paulo Vitor

18 · Hyan

5 · Romildo Del Piage

7 · Leo Chu

70 · Gaspar

9 · Leo Gamalho

Our number · cuiaba winPublished 11 Oct 22:31

50% The market57%

Us50%

~~Market~~57%

We make Cuiaba a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cuiaba win	50%	57%	−6
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Avai win	22%	17%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
Both teams to score	40%	44%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	67%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Cuiaba or draw	78%	83%	−4
Cuiaba clean sheet	46%	–	–
Avai clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.0%

0123450 12.1 9.3 3.6 1 16.0 12.3 4.8 2 10.8 8.3 3.2 3 4.9 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cuiaba down, Avai across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,220 Serie B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 320 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cuiaba at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Avai away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Cuiaba, 0.78 for Avai. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 22:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AVA 1–0 CUI · AVA 2–0 CUI · CUI 2–2 AVA

Form · last six in Serie B

CUIABA

WDWLWD3–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0

AVAI

LDLLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventude	32	+18	59
2	Vila Nova	32	+13	58
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
5	Criciuma	32	+5	53
6	Atletico Goianiense	32	+10	52
7	CRB	32	+4	51
8	Sport Recife	32	+10	50
9	Operario-PR	32	+1	48
10	Cuiaba	32	+7	47
11	São Bernardo	32	+10	45
12	Goias	32	−8	45
13	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
14	Nautico Recife	32	−1	42
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	32	−11	33
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13