Criciuma v Ponte Preta prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CriciumaDrawPonte Preta

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Criciuma 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Criciuma are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Criciuma 72%, draw 19%, Ponte Preta 9%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Criciuma v Ponte PretaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Criciuma win72%

Draw19%

Ponte Preta win9%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 36

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Criciuma

Ponte Preta

6Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 16 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · criciuma winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Criciuma a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.5, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Criciuma v Ponte Preta~~2.03 – 0.54

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 20 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 59 v 14~~5 v 20

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Criciuma win	72%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Ponte Preta win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Criciuma or draw	91%	–	–
Criciuma clean sheet	58%	–	–
Ponte Preta clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.7%

0123450 7.9 4.4 1 15.7 8.3 2.3 2 15.5 8.3 2.3 3 10.5 5.5 4 5.4 2.8 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Criciuma down, Ponte Preta across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,241 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.5% of games this season, across 341 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Criciuma at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ponte Preta away: 0.17 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Criciuma, 0.54 for Ponte Preta. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~6 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PON 1–2 CRI · CRI 2–1 PON · PON 1–2 CRI · PON 1–1 CRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 20 Sept

CRICIUMA

WWLWWL3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

PONTE PRETA

WLLLLD1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	34	+15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
8	CRB	34	+3	52
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
12	São Bernardo	34	+9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	34	−10	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14