Criciuma v America Mineiro prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 02:00

Criciuma 1–0 America Mineiro CRICIUMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Criciuma win~~58%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.271

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.139

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Criciuma win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Criciuma 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–26–16
1′KICK-OFF Criciuma v America Mineiro
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Criciuma 1–0 America Mineiro · Nicolas Godinho Johann
13′Criciuma ahead on 11′ through Nicolas Godinho Johann. 0–0. 0–0 · 55–29–16
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Rafael Raul Barcelos · America Mineiro
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Luidy Montes Carneiro · America Mineiro
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Marcelo Hermes · Criciuma
45′HALF-TIME Criciuma 0–0 America Mineiro
46′PENALTY · 49' Criciuma
46′SECOND HALF Criciuma 0–0 America Mineiro
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Criciuma 1–0 America Mineiro
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Criciuma 1–0 America Mineiro · César Martins
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' America Mineiro · On: Guilherme Parede · Off: Luidy Montes Carneiro
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Criciuma · On: Jean · Off: Guilherme Teixeira Lobo
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Jhonata Robert Alves da Silva · Criciuma
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Criciuma · On: Yuri Jonathan · Off: Nicolas Godinho Johann
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Criciuma · On: Diego Gonçalves · Off: Jhonata Robert Alves da Silva
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' America Mineiro · On: Fernando Elizari · Off: Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Criciuma · On: Eduardo Biasi · Off: Fellipe Mateus
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Eduardo Biasi · Criciuma
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' America Mineiro · On: Julio César Leme Do Nascimento · Off: Matías Segovia
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' America Mineiro · On: Otavio Goncalves · Off: Jorge Jiménez
FTFULL TIME Criciuma 1–0 America Mineiro
FTCriciuma 1–0 America Mineiro · Criciuma win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 23:16 · locked at kick-off

Criciuma win58%

Draw26%

America Mineiro win17%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 23:30

VenueEstadio Heriberto Hülse

RefereePaulo Schleich Vollkopf

Line-ups

Criciuma

4-4-2

America Mineiro

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Criciuma

America Mineiro

4Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Criciuma	32	+5	53
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Criciuma

4-4-2

32 Airton

97 Willean Lepo

37 Cesar Martins

4 Luciano Castan

22 Marcelo Hermes

13 Waguininho

14 Ronald Lopes

8 Gui Lobo

7 Fellipe Mateus

9 Nicolas

10 Jhonata Robert

Coach · Louzer Umberto

Substitutes

70 · Pedro Santos

34 · Bruno Alves

6 · Marcinho

31 · Hiago Alves

43 · Ruan Carvalho

91 · R. Otero

41 · Jean Irmer

5 · Eduardo

50 · Thiaguinho

33 · Yuri Tanque

77 · Diego Goncalves

11 · Romarinho

America Mineiro

4-2-3-1

91 Bruno Brigido

4 Rafa Barcelos

45 Ricardo Silva

3 L. Sosa

25 T. Ostchega

88 Gustavo Barreto

93 Jorge Jimenez

20 Paulo Victor

77 M. Segovia

30 L. Montes

9 Willian Bigode

Coach · Moacir Junior

Substitutes

19 · William

27 · Cassio Meneses

32 · Filipe Dahora

71 · Cristian

5 · F. Elizari

8 · Felipe Amaral

55 · Otavio Goncalves

7 · Guilherme Parede

99 · Marcelo Macola

37 · Julio Cesar

Our number · criciuma winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 23:16 · locked at kick-off

58% The market70%

Us58%

~~Market~~70%

We make Criciuma a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · criciuma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Criciuma win	58%	70%	−12
Draw	26%	20%	+6
America Mineiro win	17%	10%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	38%	51%	−12
Both teams to score	39%	41%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	65%	74%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	19%	30%	−11
Criciuma or draw	83%	90%	−7
Criciuma clean sheet	51%	–	–
America Mineiro clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.6%

0123450 11.0 7.5 2.6 1 16.6 11.2 3.9 2 12.7 8.6 3.0 3 6.6 4.4 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Criciuma down, America Mineiro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,225 Serie B matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 325 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Criciuma at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). America Mineiro away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Criciuma, 0.68 for America Mineiro. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 23:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AME 0–1 CRI · CRI 2–1 AME · AME 1–1 CRI

Form · last six in Serie B

CRICIUMA

LLLWWL0–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

AMERICA MINEIRO

WLLLLL2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	33	+15	61
2	Juventude	33	+18	60
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
5	Atletico Goianiense	33	+10	53
6	Criciuma	32	+5	53
7	Sport Recife	33	+10	51
8	CRB	32	+4	51
9	Operario-PR	33	−1	48
10	Goias	33	−6	48
11	Cuiaba	33	+6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	+10	46
13	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
14	Nautico Recife	33	−3	42
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	33	−10	36
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13