CRB v Londrina prediction · Serie B

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CRB are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CRB 56%, draw 23%, Londrina 21%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on CRB v LondrinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

CRB win56%

Draw23%

Londrina win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstádio Rei Pelé

RefereeAfro Rocha De Carvalho Filho

Line-ups

CRB

4-1-4-1

Londrina

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CRB

Londrina

6Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 20 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	CRB	34	+3	52
18	Londrina	34	−6	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CRB

4-1-4-1

1 Vitor Caetano

32 Hereda

22 Bressan

33 Lyncon

36 Lucas Lovat

21 Pedro Castro

17 Thiaguinho

8 Crystopher

10 Daniel

97 Dadá Belmonte

9 João Neto

Coach · Fábio Matias

Substitutes

45 · De Lucca

7 · Douglas Baggio

26 · Estevão

27 · Fábio Alemão

18 · Geovane

44 · Henri

99 · Saymom

2 · Kevin

12 · Matheus

6 · Reverson

20 · Vinicius Barata

95 · Ygor Catatau

Londrina

4-1-4-1

1 Luan

75 Kauê Leonardo

44 Caio Rodrigues

4 Wallace

34 Heron

5 Tárik

7 Victor Hugo

38 Geovane Meurer

77 Guilherme Dantas

28 Herbert

99 Igor Bahia

Coach · Hugo Chacon

Substitutes

2 · Nino Paraíba

11 · Pablo Dyego

33 · Kevyn

17 · João Coni

18 · Guilherme Cachoeira

9 · Gilberto

15 · Gabriel Lacerda

22 · Artur

13 · André Dhominique Queiroz Santiago da Silva

8 · Lucas Marques

30 · Mauricio Kozlinski

Our number · crb winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

56% The market70%

Us56%

~~Market~~70%

We make CRB a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CRB v Londrina~~1.84 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 20 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 52 v 32~~8 v 18

~~The market · CRB win~~70% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CRB win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CRB win	56%	70%	−14
Draw	23%	19%	+4
Londrina win	21%	12%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	54%	52%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
CRB or draw	79%	88%	−9
CRB clean sheet	36%	–	–
Londrina clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.7 6.0 3.1 1 10.5 10.5 5.5 2 9.4 9.6 5.0 3 5.8 5.9 3.1 4 2.7 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CRB down, Londrina across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,241 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.5% of games this season, across 341 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CRB at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Londrina away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for CRB, 1.04 for Londrina. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 22:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LON 5–0 CRB · LON 1–1 CRB · CRB 2–1 LON · LON 1–0 CRB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 20 Sept

CRB

LWLWDL0–1 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

LONDRINA

LLLLDW1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	34	+15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
8	CRB	34	+3	52
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
12	São Bernardo	34	+9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	34	−10	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14