Ceara v Goias prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CearaDrawGoias

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ceara 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ceara are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ceara 45%, draw 27%, Goias 28%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Ceara v GoiasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ceara win45%

Draw27%

Goias win28%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Castelão

RefereeLucas Guimaraes Rechatiko Horn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ceara

Goias

10Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 19 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Goias	34	−6	49
16	Ceara	34	−5	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ceara winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make Ceara a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ceara v Goias~~1.34 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 43 v 49~~16 v 10

~~The market · Ceara win~~45% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ceara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ceara win	45%	45%	0
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Goias win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	26%	−6
Ceara or draw	72%	74%	−2
Ceara clean sheet	38%	–	–
Goias clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.0 9.9 4.8 1 13.4 12.6 6.2 2.1 2 8.8 8.5 4.1 3 3.9 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ceara down, Goias across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,247 Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 347 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ceara at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Goias away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Ceara, 0.98 for Goias. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~GOI 2–0 CEA · GOI 2–1 CEA · CEA 1–1 GOI · CEA 1–1 GOI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 18 Sept

CEARA

WDWWLD2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

GOIAS

WLLWWD2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Novorizontino	35	+32	64
2	Vila Nova	35	+14	62
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
7	Atletico Goianiense	35	+9	54
8	CRB	34	+3	52
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	São Bernardo	35	+10	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	+2	47
13	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	35	−12	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14