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Ceara v Criciuma

Ceara

1–0Full time

Criciuma

Serie B · THU 8 OCT · Estadio Castelão

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ceara win40%

Draw29%

Criciuma win30%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 22:59

Match information

THU 8 OCT · 23:30

Venue · Estadio Castelão

Referee · Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ceara

4-2-3-1

1 Richard

18 Julio Cesar

4 Luiz Otavio

13 Luiz Otavio

12 Sanchez

25 Vinicius Zanocelo

81 Joao Gabriel

60 Enzo Lodovico

29 Vina

8 Matheus Araujo

94 R. Lopez

Coach · Paulista Daniel

Substitutes

22 · Matheus Nogueira

23 · Caique Franca

2 · R. Ramos

78 · Janderson

33 · Eder

10 · Lucas Mugni

26 · Richardson

7 · Giovanni Pavani

77 · Lenny Lobato

11 · M. N. Ferreira Berrondo

16 · Rian Santana

99 · Lucca

Criciuma

4-1-4-1

32 Airton

6 Marcinho

3 Rodrigo

4 Luciano Castan

22 Marcelo Hermes

41 Jean Irmer

10 Jhonata Robert

14 Ronald Lopes

7 Fellipe Mateus

91 R. Otero

33 Yuri Tanque

Coach · Louzer Umberto

Substitutes

70 · Pedro Santos

1 · Alisson

37 · Cesar Martins

34 · Bruno Alves

97 · Willean Lepo

31 · Hiago Alves

5 · Eduardo

50 · Thiaguinho

11 · Romarinho

88 · Caue Santos

21 · Joao Carlos

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ceara

4-2-3-1

1 Richard

18 Julio Cesar

4 Luiz Otavio

13 Luiz Otavio

12 Sanchez

25 Vinicius Zanocelo

81 Joao Gabriel

60 Enzo Lodovico

29 Vina

8 Matheus Araujo

94 R. Lopez

Coach · Paulista Daniel

Substitutes

22 · Matheus Nogueira

23 · Caique Franca

2 · R. Ramos

78 · Janderson

33 · Eder

10 · Lucas Mugni

26 · Richardson

7 · Giovanni Pavani

77 · Lenny Lobato

11 · M. N. Ferreira Berrondo

16 · Rian Santana

99 · Lucca

Criciuma

4-1-4-1

32 Airton

6 Marcinho

3 Rodrigo

4 Luciano Castan

22 Marcelo Hermes

41 Jean Irmer

10 Jhonata Robert

14 Ronald Lopes

7 Fellipe Mateus

91 R. Otero

33 Yuri Tanque

Coach · Louzer Umberto

Substitutes

70 · Pedro Santos

1 · Alisson

37 · Cesar Martins

34 · Bruno Alves

97 · Willean Lepo

31 · Hiago Alves

5 · Eduardo

50 · Thiaguinho

11 · Romarinho

88 · Caue Santos

21 · Joao Carlos

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · ceara winPublished 8 Oct 22:59

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Ceara a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ceara win	40%	35%	+5
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Criciuma win	30%	35%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	41%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	48%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	64%	66%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
Ceara or draw	70%	65%	+5
Ceara clean sheet	38%	–	–
Criciuma clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.6 11.2 5.6 1 13.4 13.2 6.5 2.2 2 8.0 7.8 3.8 3 3.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ceara down, Criciuma across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,218 Serie B matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.7% of games this season, across 318 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ceara at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Criciuma away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Ceara, 0.99 for Criciuma. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CRI 1–1 CEA · CEA 1–0 CRI · CRI 1–2 CEA

Form · last six in Serie B

CEARA

WLDWDW2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

CRICIUMA

WLLLWW2–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventude	32	+18	59
2	Vila Nova	32	+13	58
3	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
4	Novorizontino	31	+25	54
5	Criciuma	31	+6	53
6	Atletico Goianiense	32	+10	52
7	CRB	32	+4	51
8	Sport Recife	32	+10	50
9	Operario-PR	32	+1	48
10	Cuiaba	32	+7	47
11	São Bernardo	32	+10	45
12	Goias	32	−8	45
13	Nautico Recife	31	+1	42
14	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
15	Ceara	31	−5	39
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	32	−11	33
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Ceara

Criciuma

Match statistics

Line-ups

Ceara

Criciuma

Head to head

Form · last six in Serie B

The table