Botafogo SP v Ceara prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 05:57

Botafogo SP 1–0 Ceara BOTAFOGO SP WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Botafogo SP win~~40%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.538

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.470

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Botafogo SP win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Botafogo SP v Ceara
2′Much as we predicted: Botafogo SP was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Botafogo SP win 34%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Morelli · Botafogo SP
45′HALF-TIME Botafogo SP 0–0 Ceara
45′SECOND HALF Botafogo SP 0–0 Ceara
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Botafogo SP · On: Marco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi · Off: Matheus Sales
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Luiz Otávio · Ceara
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ceara · On: Rian Santana · Off: Enzo Lodovico
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ceara · On: Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli · Off: Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Botafogo SP · On: José Hugo Sousa dos Santos · Off: Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos Santos
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Botafogo SP · On: Pedro Henrique · Off: Gabriel de Souza Inocencio
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Botafogo SP 1–0 Ceara · Hygor
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ceara · On: Renzo López · Off: Matheus Araujo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ceara · On: Rafael Ramos · Off: Julio Cesar
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ceara · On: Lucas Mugni · Off: Vinicius Zanocelo
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Botafogo SP · On: Arthur Caíke · Off: Hygor
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Botafogo SP · On: Hebert Willian Badaro Oliveira · Off: Rafael Gava
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' João Gabriel Santos Batista · Ceara
FTFULL TIME Botafogo SP 1–0 Ceara
FTBotafogo SP 1–0 Ceara · Botafogo SP win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off

Botafogo SP win40%

Draw28%

Ceara win32%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 01:00

VenueEstadio Santa Cruz

RefereeJonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro

Line-ups

Botafogo SP

3-4-3

Ceara

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Botafogo SP

Ceara

6Days since last match5

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Botafogo SP

3-4-3

1 Victor Souza

2 Jonathan

3 Ericson

4 Vilar

22 Gabriel Inocencio

8 Everton Morelli

16 Matheus Sales

6 Patrick Brey

10 Rafael Gava

9 Hygor

7 Kelvin

Coach · Tencati Claudio

Substitutes

12 · Jordan

21 · Jadson

27 · Darlan

26 · Felipe Vieira

34 · Hebert

31 · Pedro Henrique

28 · Marco Antonio

20 · Yuri Felipe

29 · Thiago Moraes

18 · Arthur Caike

17 · Guilherme Queiroz

30 · Ze Hugo

Ceara

4-2-3-1

60 Enzo Lodovico

18 Julio Cesar

4 Luiz Otavio

13 Luiz Otavio

12 Sanchez

81 Joao Gabriel

25 Vinicius Zanocelo

40 Melk

8 Matheus Araujo

1 Richard

73 Saulo Mineiro

Coach · Paulista Daniel

Substitutes

23 · Caique Franca

2 · R. Ramos

78 · Janderson

33 · Eder

10 · Lucas Mugni

26 · Richardson

7 · Giovanni Pavani

77 · Lenny Lobato

11 · M. N. Ferreira Berrondo

16 · Rian Santana

94 · R. Lopez

99 · Lucca

Our number · botafogo sp winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off

40% The market44%

Us40%

~~Market~~44%

We make Botafogo SP a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · botafogo sp win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. The market has gone from 41% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botafogo SP win	40%	44%	−4
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Ceara win	32%	26%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	41%	0
Both teams to score	47%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	67%	66%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Botafogo SP or draw	68%	74%	−6
Botafogo SP clean sheet	34%	–	–
Ceara clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.0 10.6 5.7 2.1 1 12.2 13.0 7.0 2.5 2 7.6 8.1 4.3 3 3.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Botafogo SP down, Ceara across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,225 Serie B matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 325 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botafogo SP at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ceara away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Botafogo SP, 1.08 for Ceara. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 00:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CEA 0–1 BOT · BOT 1–4 CEA · CEA 4–1 BOT · BOT 2–2 CEA

Form · last six in Serie B

BOTAFOGO SP

LLDWLW1–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

CEARA

LDWDWW1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	33	+15	61
2	Juventude	33	+18	60
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
5	Atletico Goianiense	33	+10	53
6	Criciuma	32	+5	53
7	Sport Recife	33	+10	51
8	CRB	32	+4	51
9	Operario-PR	33	−1	48
10	Goias	33	−6	48
11	Cuiaba	33	+6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	+10	46
13	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
14	Nautico Recife	33	−3	42
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	33	−10	36
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13