Avai v Botafogo SP prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33

Avai 0–2 Botafogo SP AVAI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avai win~~48%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.889

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.761

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avai win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Avai was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
1′KICK-OFF Avai v Botafogo SP
39′7 shots for Avai, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 38–40–21
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Avai win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' José Hugo Sousa dos Santos · Botafogo SP
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Avai win 39%)
45′Morelli scores for Botafogo SP on 43′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–26–64
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Luiz Henrique · Avai
45′⚽ GOAL · 43' Avai 0–1 Botafogo SP · Morelli
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Avai win: 48% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Botafogo SP win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 43%)
45′HALF-TIME Avai 0–1 Botafogo SP
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Avai · On: Paulo Vitor · Off: Luiz Henrique
45′SECOND HALF Avai 0–1 Botafogo SP
46′We said Avai at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–26–64
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 10–25–65
48′9 shots for Avai, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 10–25–65
49′We said Avai at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Avai win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
53′13 shots for Avai, 3 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 8–25–67
55′We said Avai at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Avai 0–2 Botafogo SP
56′54′: Leandro Maciel on the scoresheet for Botafogo SP, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Avai · On: Gaspar · Off: Rildo Goncalves de Amorin Filho
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Avai · On: Léo Gamalho · Off: Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreira
63′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Allyson Aires Dos Santos · Avai
71′Avai have had 16 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Avai · On: Hyan · Off: Jefferson Maciel
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Avai · On: Pedro Henrique Franklim da Silva · Off: Zé Ricardo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Botafogo SP · On: Matheus Sales · Off: Rafael Gava
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Botafogo SP · On: Marco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi · Off: Leandro Maciel
78′Avai have had 20 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
84′25 shots for Avai, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Botafogo SP · On: Thiago Henrique Moraes · Off: Morelli
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Botafogo SP · On: Hebert Willian Badaro Oliveira · Off: Hygor
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Botafogo SP · On: Arthur Caíke · Off: José Hugo Sousa dos Santos
FTFULL TIME Avai 0–2 Botafogo SP
FTAvai 0–2 Botafogo SP · Avai win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Avai are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avai 48%, draw 28%, Botafogo SP 24%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Avai v Botafogo SPBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Avai win48%

Draw28%

Botafogo SP win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstádio da Ressacada

RefereePaulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva

Line-ups

Avai

4-2-3-1

Botafogo SP

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avai

Botafogo SP

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
17	Avai	34	−10	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Avai

4-2-3-1

94 Bruno Ferreira

2 Wallison

3 Allyson

38 Jefferson Maciel

36 DG

77 Zé Ricardo

8 Luiz Henrique

14 Daniel Penha

37 Rildo

10 Jean Lucas

19 Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreira

Coach · Allan Aal

Substitutes

18 · Hyan

1 · Igor Bohn

23 · Gabriel Cipriano

9 · Léo Gamalho

70 · Gaspar

35 · Pedrão

25 · Paulo Vitor

20 · Isaías Pereira

66 · Quaresma

56 · William

11 · Felipe Vizeu

15 · Guilherme Vargas

Botafogo SP

5-4-1

1 Victor Souza

22 Gabriel Inocêncio

2 Jonathan

27 Darlan

4 Vilar

6 Patrick Brey

30 Zé Hugo

8 Everton Morelli

10 Rafael Gava

5 L. Maciel

9 Hygor

Coach · Cláudio Tencati

Substitutes

18 · Arthur Caíke

16 · Matheus Sales

28 · Marco Antônio

12 · Jordan

26 · Felipe Vieira

31 · Pedro Henrique

23 · Wesley Pinheiro Santos

29 · Thiago Henrique

7 · Kelvin

34 · Badaró

Our number · avai winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Avai a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Avai v Botafogo SP~~1.34 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 37 v 44~~17 v 13

~~The market · Avai win~~40% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Avai win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avai win	48%	40%	+8
Draw	28%	31%	−3
Botafogo SP win	24%	29%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Both teams to score	42%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Over 3.5 goals	18%	19%	−1
Avai or draw	76%	71%	+5
Avai clean sheet	43%	–	–
Botafogo SP clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%

0123450 11.2 9.6 4.1 1 15.0 12.5 5.4 2 10.0 8.4 3.6 3 4.5 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avai down, Botafogo SP across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,241 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.5% of games this season, across 341 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Avai at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Botafogo SP away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Avai, 0.85 for Botafogo SP. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BOT 3–1 AVA · BOT 0–0 AVA · AVA 5–0 BOT · BOT 1–3 AVA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 19 Sept

AVAI

LLLWWD1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

BOTAFOGO SP

DWLWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	34	+15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
8	CRB	34	+3	52
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
12	São Bernardo	34	+9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	34	−10	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14