Atletico Goianiense v Sport Recife prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:46

Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport Recife ATLETICO GOIANIENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Goianiense win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.808

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.851

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Goianiense win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Goianiense 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
45′Geovany Soares scores for Atletico Goianiense on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
48′We said Atletico Goianiense at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
56′Geovany Soares scores for Atletico Goianiense on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Atletico Goianiense win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Atletico Goianiense win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
67′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Marcelo Benevenuto · Sport Recife
69′Sport Recife are down to ten from 65′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 84–14–2
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Diego·Hernandez · Sport Recife
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Atletico Goianiense · On: Matheuzinho · Off: Bruno José
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Atletico Goianiense · On: Henrique · Off: José Domingos de Moraes Neto
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sport Recife · On: Arthur Maron Cruz · Off: Patrick de Paula Carreiro
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atletico Goianiense · On: Cristiano Claudinei Nogueira · Off: Leandro Vilela
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atletico Goianiense · On: Yuri · Off: Guilherme Lopes
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport Recife · Geovany Soares
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport Recife · Pedro Henrique Perotti
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport Recife · Pedro Henrique Perotti
90′83′ and it is 1–1: Pedro Henrique Perotti on the scoresheet for Sport Recife. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Atletico Goianiense win: 45% at kick-off, 0% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Atletico Goianiense win 0%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Atletico Goianiense win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Atletico Goianiense win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
FTFULL TIME Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport Recife
FTAtletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport Recife · Atletico Goianiense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atletico Goianiense win45%

Draw27%

Sport Recife win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:10

VenueEstadio Antonio Accioly

RefereeWagner do Nascimento Magalhaes

Line-ups

Atletico Goianiense

4-2-3-1

Sport Recife

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico Goianiense

Sport Recife

4Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Atletico Goianiense	32	+10	52
8	Sport Recife	32	+10	50

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Goianiense

4-2-3-1

1 Paulo Vitor

2 Ewerthon

3 O. J. Barreto Viera

4 Adriano Martins

6 Guilherme

5 Leandro Vilela

8 Peixoto

7 Bruno Jose

10 Netinho

11 Geovany Soares

9 Joao Pedro

Coach · Souza Eduardo

Substitutes

12 · Paulo Henrique

14 · Nata

15 · Tito

16 · Yuri

13 · K. Henrique

20 · Guilherme

21 · Matheusinho

22 · I. Niltton

17 · Cristiano

18 · Henrique Freitas

19 · Marrony

Sport Recife

4-2-3-1

26 Thiago Couto

27 Claudinho

5 Benevenuto

3 Marcelo Ajul

96 Edson Lucas

29 Willian Oliveira

7 Patrick de Paula

30 Chrystian Barletta

8 Juan Alano

10 de Pena Carlos

19 Neto Pessoa

Coach · Mariano Soso

Substitutes

21 · Brenno

40 · Matheus Baraka

28 · Habraao

6 · Biel Fonseca

80 · K. Andrade

23 · Ze Gabriel

68 · Augusto

77 · Dudu

20 · Diego Hernandez

25 · Clayson

9 · Pedro Perotti

75 · Arthur Maron

Our number · atletico goianiense winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Atletico Goianiense a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atletico goianiense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Goianiense win	45%	51%	−6
Draw	27%	27%	+1
Sport Recife win	28%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	42%	49%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	68%	72%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
Atletico Goianiense or draw	72%	78%	−6
Atletico Goianiense clean sheet	37%	–	–
Sport Recife clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 9.6 9.4 4.7 1 12.8 12.7 6.3 2.2 2 8.7 8.6 4.3 3 4.0 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Goianiense down, Sport Recife across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,220 Serie B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 320 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Goianiense at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sport Recife away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Atletico Goianiense, 1.01 for Sport Recife. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 ATL · SPO 0–0 ATL · ATL 3–1 SPO

Form · last six in Serie B

ATLETICO GOIANIENSE

WWLWWL2–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–3

SPORT RECIFE

WLWLWW2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventude	32	+18	59
2	Vila Nova	32	+13	58
3	Novorizontino	32	+27	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	+10	56
5	Criciuma	32	+5	53
6	Atletico Goianiense	32	+10	52
7	CRB	32	+4	51
8	Sport Recife	32	+10	50
9	Operario-PR	32	+1	48
10	Cuiaba	32	+7	47
11	São Bernardo	32	+10	45
12	Goias	32	−8	45
13	Athletic Club	32	+1	42
14	Nautico Recife	32	−1	42
15	Ceara	32	−4	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	−2	38
17	Avai	32	−11	33
18	Londrina	32	−7	28
19	America Mineiro	32	−32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	−51	13