Atletico Goianiense v Novorizontino prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:01

Atletico Goianiense 0–1 Novorizontino ATLETICO GOIANIENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Goianiense win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.642

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Goianiense win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Goianiense 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Goianiense v Novorizontino
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' José Domingos de Moraes Neto · Atletico Goianiense
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Atletico Goianiense win 35%)
34′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Gustavo Maia da Silva · Atletico Goianiense
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Goianiense 0–0 Novorizontino
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+7' Enderson Alves Moreira · Novorizontino
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Novorizontino · On: César · Off: Jordi
46′SECOND HALF Atletico Goianiense 0–0 Novorizontino
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Atletico Goianiense win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
52′12 shots for Atletico Goianiense, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 27–48–24
56′We said Atletico Goianiense at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–51–23
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Atletico Goianiense · On: Gustavo Daniel da Silva Gonçalves · Off: Guilherme Lopes
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Novorizontino · On: Diego Galo · Off: Nicolas Morês da Cruz
59′We said Atletico Goianiense at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Daniel Nascimento Peixoto dos Santos · Atletico Goianiense
60′We said Atletico Goianiense at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Atletico Goianiense 0–1 Novorizontino
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Atletico Goianiense win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Novorizontino win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 54%)
61′Novorizontino ahead on 60′ through Eduardo Brock. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–19–76
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Madson Ferreira dos Santos · Novorizontino
67′Atletico Goianiense have had 17 attempts to 12 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Marrony da Silva Liberato Silveira · Atletico Goianiense
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Atletico Goianiense · On: Bruno José · Off: Warley Leandro da Silva Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Atletico Goianiense · On: Henrique · Off: Gustavo Maia da Silva
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Atletico Goianiense · On: David Terans · Off: Marrony da Silva Liberato Silveira
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Novorizontino · On: Leonardo Naldi de Matos · Off: Luís Oyama
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Novorizontino · On: Alexis·Alvarino · Off: Madson Ferreira dos Santos
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomes · Novorizontino
82′Atletico Goianiense have had 21 attempts to 15 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–91
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Novorizontino · On: Juninho · Off: Matheus Henrique Bianqui
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Atletico Goianiense · On: João Pedro · Off: Gustavo Coutinho Silva Lopes Corrected
95′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atletico Goianiense · On: João Pedro · Off: Gustavo Coutinho Silva Lopes
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Alexis·Alvarino · Novorizontino
FTFULL TIME Atletico Goianiense 0–1 Novorizontino
FTAtletico Goianiense 0–1 Novorizontino · Atletico Goianiense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Goianiense are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Goianiense 38%, draw 29%, Novorizontino 33%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Goianiense v NovorizontinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Goianiense win38%

Draw29%

Novorizontino win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Antonio Accioly

RefereeYuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz

Line-ups

Atletico Goianiense

4-2-3-1

Novorizontino

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Goianiense

Novorizontino

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Goianiense

4-2-3-1

1 Paulo Vítor

2 Warley

3 Gebson

4 Adriano Martins

6 Guilherme Lopes

5 Peixoto

8 Netinho

7 Soares Geovany

10 Marrony

11 Gustavo Maia

9 Gustavo Coutinho

Coach · Roger

Substitutes

15 · Gustavo Daniel

20 · D. Terans

18 · João Pedro

21 · Matheusinho

16 · Cristiano

17 · Henrique Freitas Alves

19 · Guilherme Marques

12 · Paulo Henrique

13 · Ewerthon

14 · Natã

22 · Bruno José

Novorizontino

4-2-3-1

93 Jordi

2 Madson

3 Carlinhos

14 Eduardo Brock

4 Patrick

17 Matheus Bianqui

6 Luis Oyama

41 Reidiney

10 Romulo

30 Nicolas Careca

9 Carlão

Coach · Enderson Moreira

Substitutes

22 · A. Alvariño

7 · Ronald Barcellos

19 · Diego Galo

24 · J. Lora

40 · Jardiel Maciel Libertino da Silva

27 · Diego Mathias

18 · Léo Naldi

8 · C. Ortíz

28 · Marlon

31 · César

50 · Juninho

16 · Vinícius

Our number · atletico goianiense winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Atletico Goianiense a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Goianiense v Novorizontino~~1.16 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 54 v 61~~6 v 2

~~The market · Atletico Goianiense win~~36% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Goianiense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Goianiense win	38%	36%	+2
Draw	29%	29%	0
Novorizontino win	33%	35%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	38%	49%	−11
Both teams to score	44%	55%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	65%	72%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	19%	28%	−9
Atletico Goianiense or draw	67%	65%	+2
Atletico Goianiense clean sheet	35%	–	–
Novorizontino clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 11.0 11.6 6.1 2.2 1 12.7 13.1 7.0 2.5 2 7.3 7.6 4.0 3 2.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Goianiense down, Novorizontino across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,241 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.5% of games this season, across 341 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Goianiense at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Novorizontino away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Atletico Goianiense, 1.06 for Novorizontino. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~NOV 3–0 ATL · NOV 1–1 ATL · ATL 1–0 NOV · ATL 2–2 NOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 18 Sept

ATLETICO GOIANIENSE

LWWLDD0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

NOVORIZONTINO

LDWWWD1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	34	+15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
8	CRB	34	+3	52
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
12	São Bernardo	34	+9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	34	−10	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14