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Athletic Club v Londrina

Athletic Club

2–2Full time

Londrina

Serie B · TUE 13 OCT · Estadio Joaquim Portugal

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 02:00

Athletic Club 2–2 Londrina ATHLETIC CLUB WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Athletic Club win~~52%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.901

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.801

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Athletic Club win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Athletic Club was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Athletic Club v Londrina
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Athletic Club 0–1 Londrina
4′Londrina find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–25–48
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Athletic Club win: 52% at kick-off, 27% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Londrina win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Athletic Club win 27%)
5′We said Athletic Club at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–25–48
6′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Caio César Rodrigues Souza · Londrina
14′We said Athletic Club at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–50
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Athletic Club 1–1 Londrina
18′João Miguel scores for Athletic Club on 18′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 49–28–23
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Athletic Club win: 52% at kick-off, 49% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Athletic Club win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Londrina win 23%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Athletic Club win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Athletic Club · On: Felipe Negrucci Berdague · Off: Jhan Pool Torres Cañete
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Athletic Club · On: Otavio Bruno Dos Santos · Off: Maswel Ananias Silva
45′SECOND HALF Athletic Club 1–1 Londrina
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Athletic Club · On: Carlos Moisés de Lima · Off: Joao Victor Broad Moreira Guimaraes
48′We said Athletic Club at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–40–20
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Athletic Club win 37%)
58′We said Athletic Club at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–18
61′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 32–50–18
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Athletic Club win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Londrina · On: Pablo Dyego · Off: Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Londrina · On: Thalis Henrique Cantanhede · Off: Geovane Santana Meurer
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Londrina · On: Igor Ruan Sousa dos Santos · Off: William Pottker
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Jhonatan · Athletic Club
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Athletic Club win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Londrina · On: Joao Coni · Off: Victor Hugo de Faria Mota
77′We said Athletic Club at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Athletic Club · On: Dixon Vera · Off: Kauan Gabriel Cordeiro Lindes
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Athletic Club · On: José Carlos Cracco Neto · Off: Enzo Henrique dos Santos
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Londrina · On: Kevyn Lucas Ramos da Costa · Off: Heron
81′We said Athletic Club at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–8
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Carlos Moisés de Lima · Athletic Club
83′We said Athletic Club at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–11–89
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Athletic Club 1–2 Londrina · João Vitor de Souza Martins
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Athletic Club win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Londrina win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 11%)
84′84′ and it is 1–2: João Vitor de Souza Martins on the scoresheet for Londrina. 1–2 · 1–9–90
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–9–91
88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' Athletic Club
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Athletic Club win: 52% at kick-off, 6% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Londrina win 4%)
89′We said Athletic Club at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 2–2 · 6–90–4
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Athletic Club 2–2 Londrina · João Miguel
90′Athletic Club level it on 89′ through João Miguel. 2–2. 2–2 · 5–92–3
90′Full time, 2–2. We called Athletic Club at 52% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
91′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 4–93–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Athletic Club win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Athletic Club 2–2 Londrina
FTAthletic Club 2–2 Londrina · Athletic Club win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Athletic Club v LondrinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 23:19 · locked at kick-off

Athletic Club win52%

Draw24%

Londrina win23%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 23:30

VenueEstadio Joaquim Portugal

RefereeLucas Guimaraes Rechatiko Horn

Line-ups

Athletic Club

3-4-3

Londrina

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Athletic Club

Londrina

7Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Athletic Club	32	1	42
18	Londrina	32	-7	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Athletic Club left waiting after Rayo Vallecano match abandonedFootball España · 1 day ago · Athletic Club, Rayo Vallecano

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Athletic Club

3-4-3

1 Luan Polli

3 Jhonatan Silva

4 Belezi

19 J. Pool

22 Diogo Batista

15 Jota

16 Joao Miguel

23 Enzo Santos

17 Kauan Rodrigues

11 Max

10 Kauan Lindes

Coach · Souza Alex

Substitutes

12 · Tony

6 · Zeca

2 · Douglas Pele

5 · Felipe Negrucci

8 · Assis

18 · Pedro Oliveira

14 · Yago Santos

20 · W. Aponza

7 · Bruninho

13 · Yarlen

9 · Carlinhos

21 · D. Vera

Londrina

4-1-4-1

1 Luan Ribeiro

75 Kaue Leonardo

44 Caio Rodrigues

4 Wallace

34 Heron

5 Tarik

7 Vitinho Mota

38 Geovane Meurer

22 Joao Vitor

28 Herbert

23 Willian Pottker

Coach · Micale Rogerio

Substitutes

30 · Mauricio Kozlinski

33 · Kevyn

15 · Gabriel Lacerda

13 · Andre Dhominique

96 · Thalis

19 · Caina

11 · Pablo Dyego

99 · Igor Bahia

9 · Gilberto

17 · Joao Coni

Our number · athletic club winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 23:19 · locked at kick-off

52% The market48%

Us52%

~~Market~~48%

We make Athletic Club a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · athletic club win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. The market has gone from 44% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Athletic Club win	52%	48%	+5
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Londrina win	23%	24%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	43%	+6
Both teams to score	51%	48%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	68%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	28%	23%	+4
Athletic Club or draw	77%	76%	+1
Athletic Club clean sheet	37%	–	–
Londrina clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.2 7.2 3.6 1 11.6 11.5 5.8 2 9.5 9.4 4.7 3 5.3 5.2 2.6 4 2.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Athletic Club down, Londrina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,228 Serie B matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 328 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Athletic Club at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Londrina away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Athletic Club, 1.00 for Londrina. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 23:18. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LON 2–0 ATH

Form · last six in Serie B

ATHLETIC CLUB

LWDDLL0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

LONDRINA

WWLLLL2–1 · 6–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	33	15	61
2	Novorizontino	33	31	60
3	Juventude	33	18	60
4	Fortaleza EC	33	10	57
5	Criciuma	33	6	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	33	10	53
7	CRB	33	4	52
8	Sport Recife	33	10	51
9	Goias	33	-6	48
10	Operario-PR	33	-1	48
11	Cuiaba	33	6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	10	46
13	Nautico Recife	33	-3	42
14	Ceara	33	-5	42
15	Athletic Club	32	1	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	-1	41
17	Avai	33	-10	36
18	Londrina	32	-7	28
19	America Mineiro	33	-33	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	-55	13