

America Mineiro v Operario-PR
America Mineiro
Operario-PRSerie B · SAT 17 OCT · Arena Independência
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said America Mineiro win at 40%.
- 1′KICK-OFF America Mineiro v Operario-PR
- 2′Little has changed for our model: America Mineiro 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–32
- 21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Tobias Ostchega · America Mineiro
- 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was America Mineiro win 33%)
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Caio Dantas · Operario-PR
- 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Jorge Jiménez · America Mineiro
- 45′HALF-TIME America Mineiro 0–0 Operario-PR
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Operario-PR · On: Brenno · Off: Hildeberto Pereira
- 46′America Mineiro have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–43–26
- 46′SECOND HALF America Mineiro 0–0 Operario-PR
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' America Mineiro win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
- 56′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–50–23
- 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Matías Segovia · America Mineiro
- 59′12 shots for America Mineiro, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–52–22
- 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Barreto · America Mineiro
- 62′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Operario-PR · On: Dudu · Off: Pedrinho
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' America Mineiro win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' William Arthur Assmann · America Mineiro
- 71′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
- 71′🟨 YELLOW · 64' William Arthur Assmann · America Mineiro
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Operario-PR · On: Onitlasi Júnior de Moraes Rodrigues · Off: Gabriel Feliciano da Silva
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Operario-PR · On: João Gabriel Rodrigues Botao · Off: Mikael Doka
- 73′16 shots for America Mineiro, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 18–67–15
- 77′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–12
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' America Mineiro · On: Luidy Montes Carneiro · Off: Tobias Ostchega
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' America Mineiro · On: Fernando Elizari · Off: Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' America Mineiro · On: Felipe · Off: Jorge Jiménez
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' America Mineiro win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
- 83′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Operario-PR · On: Aylon · Off: Juan Zuluaga
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' America Mineiro · On: Otavio Goncalves · Off: Rafael Raul Barcelos
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' America Mineiro · On: Marcelo Enrique Maçola Filho · Off: Willian
- 89′We said America Mineiro at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
- 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' America Mineiro 1–0 Operario-PR
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' America Mineiro win: 40% at kick-off, 96% now
- 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' America Mineiro win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
- 90′America Mineiro ahead on 88′ through Guilherme Parede. 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
- 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Aylon · Operario-PR
- FTFULL TIME America Mineiro 1–0 Operario-PR
- FTAmerica Mineiro 1–0 Operario-PR · America Mineiro win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAmerica Mineiro are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: America Mineiro 40%, draw 28%, Operario-PR 33%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
America Mineiro win40%
Operario-PR win33%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:30
RoundMatchday 34
VenueArena Independência
RefereeAfro Rocha De Carvalho Filho
Match timeline
All events
America MineiroMIN
Operario-PREvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
America Mineiro
4-2-3-1
Operario-PR
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
America Mineiro
Operario-PR
Last match: 12 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B
Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
America Mineiro
4-2-3-1
91 Bruno Brígido
4 Rafael Barcelos
45 Ricardo Silva
3 L. Sosa
25 T. Ostchega
93 J. Jiménez
88 Barreto
20 Paulo Victor
77 M. Segovia
7 Guilherme Parede
9 Willian
Coach · Moacir Júnior
Substitutes
19 · William
5 · F. Elizari
55 · Otavio Goncalves
37 · Cesar Leme Do Nascimento Julio
99 · Marcelo Macola
27 · Cássio
30 · L. Montes
2 · Emerson Santos
26 · Manoel
71 · Cristian Do Espirito Santo Rodrigues
8 · Felipe Amaral
Operario-PR
4-2-3-1
1 Elias Martello Curzel
2 Mikael Doka
22 J. Cuenú
43 Joseph
27 Gabriel Feliciano
8 J. Zuluaga
5 Índio
14 Hildeberto Pereira
20 Vinícius Diniz
30 Pedro Vilhena
99 Caio Dantas
Coach · Alberto Valentim
Substitutes
4 · Klaus
21 · Brenno
23 · Joao Gabriel
17 · Nicolas Schulz
18 · André
11 · Aylon
33 · Vagner
6 · Moraes
16 · Miranda
88 · Neto Paraíba
28 · Dudu
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
America Mineiro
4-2-3-1
91 Bruno Brígido
4 Rafael Barcelos
45 Ricardo Silva
3 L. Sosa
25 T. Ostchega
93 J. Jiménez
88 Barreto
20 Paulo Victor
77 M. Segovia
7 Guilherme Parede
9 Willian
Coach · Moacir Júnior
Substitutes
19 · William
5 · F. Elizari
55 · Otavio Goncalves
37 · Cesar Leme Do Nascimento Julio
99 · Marcelo Macola
27 · Cássio
30 · L. Montes
2 · Emerson Santos
26 · Manoel
71 · Cristian Do Espirito Santo Rodrigues
8 · Felipe Amaral
Operario-PR
4-2-3-1
1 Elias Martello Curzel
2 Mikael Doka
22 J. Cuenú
43 Joseph
27 Gabriel Feliciano
8 J. Zuluaga
5 Índio
14 Hildeberto Pereira
20 Vinícius Diniz
30 Pedro Vilhena
99 Caio Dantas
Coach · Alberto Valentim
Substitutes
4 · Klaus
21 · Brenno
23 · Joao Gabriel
17 · Nicolas Schulz
18 · André
11 · Aylon
33 · Vagner
6 · Moraes
16 · Miranda
88 · Neto Paraíba
28 · Dudu
We make America Mineiro a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro win | 40% | 30% | +10 |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Operario-PR win | 33% | 43% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 50% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 74% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 29% | −8 |
| America Mineiro or draw | 67% | 57% | +10 |
| America Mineiro clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
| Operario-PR clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 14 Sept
AMERICA MINEIRO
OPERARIO-PR
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | +15 | 61 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | +31 | 60 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | +18 | 60 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 34 | +12 | 60 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | +6 | 56 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 34 | +10 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 33 | +4 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | +8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | −6 | 48 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 33 | −1 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | +10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 33 | +1 | 43 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 33 | −3 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | −5 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | −1 | 41 |
| 17 | Avai | 33 | −10 | 36 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | −7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 33 | −33 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 34 | −55 | 14 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Vila Nova
Novorizontino
Juventude
Fortaleza EC
Criciuma
Atletico Goianiense
CRB
Sport Recife
Goias
Cuiaba
São Bernardo
Athletic Club
Nautico Recife
Ceara
Botafogo SP
Avai
Londrina
Ponte Preta