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Model 1.2

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America Mineiro v Operario-PR

America Mineiro
1–0Full time
Operario-PR

Serie B · SAT 17 OCT · Arena Independência

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:01
America Mineiro 1–0 Operario-PR AMERICA MINEIRO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said America Mineiro win40%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.546
The market’s Brier score0.746

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said America Mineiro win at 40%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF America Mineiro v Operario-PR
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: America Mineiro 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–32
  4. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Tobias Ostchega · America Mineiro
  5. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was America Mineiro win 33%)
  6. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Caio Dantas · Operario-PR
  7. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Jorge Jiménez · America Mineiro
  8. 45′HALF-TIME America Mineiro 0–0 Operario-PR
  9. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Operario-PR · On: Brenno · Off: Hildeberto Pereira
  10. 46′America Mineiro have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–43–26
  11. 46′SECOND HALF America Mineiro 0–0 Operario-PR
  12. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' America Mineiro win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  13. 56′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–50–23
  14. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Matías Segovia · America Mineiro
  15. 59′12 shots for America Mineiro, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–52–22
  16. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Barreto · America Mineiro
  17. 62′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
  18. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Operario-PR · On: Dudu · Off: Pedrinho
  19. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' America Mineiro win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  20. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' William Arthur Assmann · America Mineiro
  21. 71′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
  22. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 64' William Arthur Assmann · America Mineiro
  23. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Operario-PR · On: Onitlasi Júnior de Moraes Rodrigues · Off: Gabriel Feliciano da Silva
  24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Operario-PR · On: João Gabriel Rodrigues Botao · Off: Mikael Doka
  25. 73′16 shots for America Mineiro, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 18–67–15
  26. 77′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–12
  27. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' America Mineiro · On: Luidy Montes Carneiro · Off: Tobias Ostchega
  28. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' America Mineiro · On: Fernando Elizari · Off: Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus
  29. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' America Mineiro · On: Felipe · Off: Jorge Jiménez
  30. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' America Mineiro win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  31. 83′We said America Mineiro at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Operario-PR · On: Aylon · Off: Juan Zuluaga
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' America Mineiro · On: Otavio Goncalves · Off: Rafael Raul Barcelos
  34. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' America Mineiro · On: Marcelo Enrique Maçola Filho · Off: Willian
  35. 89′We said America Mineiro at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
  36. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' America Mineiro 1–0 Operario-PR
  37. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' America Mineiro win: 40% at kick-off, 96% now
  38. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' America Mineiro win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
  39. 90′America Mineiro ahead on 88′ through Guilherme Parede. 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  40. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Aylon · Operario-PR
  41. FTFULL TIME America Mineiro 1–0 Operario-PR
  42. FTAmerica Mineiro 1–0 Operario-PR · America Mineiro win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

America Mineiro are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: America Mineiro 40%, draw 28%, Operario-PR 33%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on America Mineiro v Operario-PRBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

America Mineiro win40%
Draw28%
Operario-PR win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueArena Independência

RefereeAfro Rocha De Carvalho Filho

Line-ups

America Mineiro

4-2-3-1

Operario-PR

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

America Mineiro

Operario-PR

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Operario-PR33−148
19America Mineiro33−3317

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

America Mineiro

4-2-3-1

91 Bruno Brígido

4 Rafael Barcelos

45 Ricardo Silva

3 L. Sosa

25 T. Ostchega

93 J. Jiménez

88 Barreto

20 Paulo Victor

77 M. Segovia

7 Guilherme Parede

9 Willian

Coach · Moacir Júnior

Substitutes

19 · William

5 · F. Elizari

55 · Otavio Goncalves

37 · Cesar Leme Do Nascimento Julio

99 · Marcelo Macola

27 · Cássio

30 · L. Montes

2 · Emerson Santos

26 · Manoel

71 · Cristian Do Espirito Santo Rodrigues

8 · Felipe Amaral

Operario-PR

4-2-3-1

1 Elias Martello Curzel

2 Mikael Doka

22 J. Cuenú

43 Joseph

27 Gabriel Feliciano

8 J. Zuluaga

5 Índio

14 Hildeberto Pereira

20 Vinícius Diniz

30 Pedro Vilhena

99 Caio Dantas

Coach · Alberto Valentim

Substitutes

4 · Klaus

21 · Brenno

23 · Joao Gabriel

17 · Nicolas Schulz

18 · André

11 · Aylon

33 · Vagner

6 · Moraes

16 · Miranda

88 · Neto Paraíba

28 · Dudu

Our number · america mineiro winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off
40% The market30%
Us40%
Market30%

We make America Mineiro a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · America Mineiro v Operario-PR1.25 – 1.10
Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 14 SeptW0 D0 L6 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 17 v 4819 v 10
The market · America Mineiro win30% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 22:07
Our probability · America Mineiro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
America Mineiro win40%30%+10
Draw28%27%+1
Operario-PR win33%43%−10
Over 2.5 goals42%50%−8
Both teams to score47%54%−7
Over 1.5 goals68%74%−6
Over 3.5 goals21%29%−8
America Mineiro or draw67%57%+10
America Mineiro clean sheet33%––
Operario-PR clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 9.7 10.5 5.8 2.2 1 11.9 12.9 7.1 2.7 2 7.4 8.1 4.4 3 3.1 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+America Mineiro down, Operario-PR across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting1.40
Over 2.50 of 5
Both scored1 of 5
Last meetingsOPE 1–0 AME · AME 1–1 OPE · OPE 1–0 AME · OPE 1–0 AME

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 14 Sept

AMERICA MINEIRO

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

OPERARIO-PR

DWDLLL3–3 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vila Nova33+1561
2Novorizontino33+3160
3Juventude33+1860
4Fortaleza EC34+1260
5Criciuma33+656
6Atletico Goianiense34+1054
7CRB33+452
8Sport Recife34+851
9Goias33−648
10Operario-PR33−148
11Cuiaba33+647
12São Bernardo33+1046
13Athletic Club33+143
14Nautico Recife33−342
15Ceara33−542
16Botafogo SP33−141
17Avai33−1036
18Londrina33−729
19America Mineiro33−3317
20Ponte Preta34−5514

The competition's standings before kick-off.