America Mineiro v Cuiaba prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

America MineiroDrawCuiaba

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · America Mineiro 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with America Mineiro just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: America Mineiro 35%, draw 30%, Cuiaba 35%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on America Mineiro v CuiabaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

America Mineiro win35%

Draw30%

Cuiaba win35%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueArena Independência

RefereeNascimento de Souza, Jodis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

America Mineiro

Cuiaba

9Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

Last match: 20 Oct · the Brazilian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · america mineiro winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:11 · locked at kick-off

35% The market26%

Us35%

~~Market~~26%

We make America Mineiro a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · America Mineiro v Cuiaba~~1.01 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 47~~19 v 11

~~The market · America Mineiro win~~26% · ours 35%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · America Mineiro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 34%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
America Mineiro win	35%	26%	+9
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Cuiaba win	35%	46%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	33%	44%	−11
Both teams to score	40%	49%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	60%	68%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	15%	24%	−9
America Mineiro or draw	65%	54%	+11
America Mineiro clean sheet	37%	–	–
Cuiaba clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 13.4 13.5 6.8 2.3 1 13.5 13.3 6.7 2.3 2 6.8 6.7 3.4 3 2.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+America Mineiro down, Cuiaba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,241 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.5% of games this season, across 341 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

America Mineiro at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cuiaba away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for America Mineiro, 1.01 for Cuiaba. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~CUI 1–0 AME · AME 1–1 CUI · CUI 3–1 AME · CUI 2–2 AME

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 18 Sept

AMERICA MINEIRO

LLLLLW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

CUIABA

WLWDLL3–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vila Nova	34	+15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	+31	61
3	Juventude	34	+18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	+12	60
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	+10	54
7	Sport Recife	35	+9	54
8	CRB	34	+3	52
9	Operario-PR	35	−1	51
10	Goias	34	−6	49
11	Cuiaba	34	+5	47
12	São Bernardo	34	+9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	0	44
14	Athletic Club	35	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	−3	43
16	Ceara	34	−5	43
17	Avai	34	−10	37
18	Londrina	34	−6	32
19	America Mineiro	34	−32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	−55	14