Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vitoria win at 38%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Vitoria 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
3. 1′KICK-OFF Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense
4. 3′We said Vitoria at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Vitoria 1–0 Atletico Paranaense
6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Vitoria win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
7. 4′GOAL DISALLOWED · 4' Vitoria
8. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Vitoria win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
9. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Jadson Alves dos Santos · Atletico Paranaense
10. 24′We said Vitoria at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–22–65
11. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Vitoria 0–1 Atletico Paranaense
12. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Vitoria win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
13. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Atletico Paranaense win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Vitoria win 35%)
14. 27′Atletico Paranaense ahead on 23′ through an own goal by Jamerson. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
15. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Vitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense
16. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Vitoria win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
17. 30′Renato Kayzer scores for Vitoria on 29′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–35–32
18. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Atletico Paranaense win 66%)
19. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Diego Tarzia · Vitoria
20. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Luiz Gustavo · Atletico Paranaense
21. 45′HALF-TIME Vitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense
22. 46′SECOND HALF Vitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense
23. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vitoria · On: Walace · Off: Matheusinho
24. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Bruno Gonçalves Baldini · Atletico Paranaense
25. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+6' Vitoria win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
26. 57′We said Vitoria at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–49–25
27. 58′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 26–50–24
28. 61′We said Vitoria at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–23
29. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vitoria · On: Lucas Silva · Off: Diego Tarzia
30. 70′We said Vitoria at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
31. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Vitoria win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
32. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atletico Paranaense · On: Bruno Zapelli · Off: João Victor Machado Cruz
33. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Vitoria · On: Tomás Pochettino · Off: Matheuzinho
34. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atletico Paranaense · On: Kauan Augusto Stabelini · Off: Bruno Gonçalves Baldini
35. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atletico Paranaense · On: Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio · Off: Leonardo Caetano Silva
36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Vitoria · On: bruno alex · Off: Renato Kayzer Corrected
37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atletico Paranaense · On: Juan Portilla · Off: Luiz Gustavo
38. 83′We said Vitoria at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
39. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Vitoria win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
40. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Vitoria · On: bruno alex · Off: Erick
41. 90′We said Vitoria at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
42. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Gilberto · Atletico Paranaense
43. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Atletico Paranaense · On: jorge rivaldo · Off: Kevin Viveros
44. 99′Vitoria are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 1–97–1
45. 99′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Marinho · Vitoria
46. 99′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Luan Cândido · Vitoria
47. FTFULL TIME Vitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense
48. FTVitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense · Vitoria win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.