Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Vasco DA GamaDrawFlamengo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Flamengo 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flamengo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vasco DA Gama 27%, draw 25%, Flamengo 48%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Vasco DA Gama v FlamengoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Vasco DA Gama win27%

Draw25%

Flamengo win48%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueSão Januário

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vasco DA Gama

Flamengo

5Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 23 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadores

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Flamengo	31	+36	67
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	−6	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flamengo winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Flamengo a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo~~1.17 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 38 v 67~~13 v 2

~~The market · Flamengo win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flamengo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vasco DA Gama win	27%	27%	0
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Flamengo win	48%	46%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	31%	0
Vasco DA Gama or draw	52%	54%	−2
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet	19%	–	–
Flamengo clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.3 9.6 8.1 4.5 1 6.8 11.6 9.4 5.2 2.2 2 4.1 6.6 5.4 3.0 3 2.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vasco DA Gama down, Flamengo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,216 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 316 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vasco DA Gama at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Flamengo away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Vasco DA Gama, 1.66 for Flamengo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FLA 2–2 VAS · FLA 1–0 VAS · FLA 1–1 VAS · VAS 0–0 FLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

VASCO DA GAMA

WWWDLW2–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

FLAMENGO

WWWDWW1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	32	+34	69
2	Flamengo	31	+36	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	+12	54
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	32	+1	43
10	RB Bragantino	32	+1	41
11	Botafogo	32	−7	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	−6	38
14	Vitoria	32	−11	38
15	Mirassol	32	−8	37
16	Internacional	32	−4	35
17	Corinthians	32	−8	33
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18