Vasco DA Gama v Corinthians prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Vasco DA GamaDrawCorinthians

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Vasco DA Gama 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vasco DA Gama are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vasco DA Gama 44%, draw 27%, Corinthians 29%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Vasco DA Gama v CorinthiansBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vasco DA Gama win44%

Draw27%

Corinthians win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueSão Januário

RefereeWilton Sampaio

Line-ups

Vasco DA Gama

4-2-3-1

Corinthians

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vasco DA Gama

Corinthians

3Days since last match5

Last match: 21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Last match: 20 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vasco DA Gama

4-2-3-1

1 Léo Jardim

2 J. Rodríguez

4 A. Saldivia

30 Robert Renan

66 Cuiabano

22 A. Lescano

5 S. Sosa

11 A. Gómez

23 Thiago Mendes

9 F. Colidio

19 Bruno Duarte

Coach · Pedro Emanuel

Substitutes

13 · Daniel Fuzato

3 · Tchê Tchê

83 · Ramon Rique

96 · Paulo Henrique

17 · Nuno Moreira

6 · Lucas Piton

43 · Lucas Freitas

20 · Brenner

7 · David

55 · Gabriel Pereira

18 · M. Hinestroza

8 · Jair

Corinthians

4-2-3-1

1 Hugo Souza

2 Matheuzinho

5 André Ramalho

13 Gustavo Henrique

26 F. Angileri

61 Dieguinho

7 Breno

49 Andre

8 R. Garro

21 Matheus Bidu

9 Yuri Alberto

Coach · C. Seedorf

Substitutes

23 · Matheus Pereira

29 · Allan

35 · Charles

18 · Pedro Raul

20 · P. Milans

55 · I. Machado

77 · J. Lingard

51 · Kauê Camargo

37 · Kaio César

4 · João Pedro

46 · Hugo

56 · Guilherme Inácio

Our number · vasco da gama winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market56%

Us44%

~~Market~~56%

We make Vasco DA Gama a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vasco DA Gama v Corinthians~~1.42 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 35 v 33~~15 v 16

~~The market · Vasco DA Gama win~~56% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vasco DA Gama win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vasco DA Gama win	44%	56%	−12
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Corinthians win	29%	19%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	46%	48%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
Vasco DA Gama or draw	71%	81%	−10
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet	33%	–	–
Corinthians clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.3 8.7 4.9 1 11.3 12.6 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.8 4.8 3 3.9 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vasco DA Gama down, Corinthians across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,210 Serie A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 310 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.11 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Corinthians away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Vasco DA Gama, 1.10 for Corinthians. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 22:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~COR 1–0 VAS · VAS 1–2 COR · COR 0–0 VAS · VAS 2–3 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

VASCO DA GAMA

LWWWDL0–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

CORINTHIANS

LLLLLD1–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18