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Sao Paulo v Vitoria

Sao Paulo

2–1Full time

Vitoria

Serie A · SUN 11 OCT · Morumbi

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria SAO PAULO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sao Paulo win~~52%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.353

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.270

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sao Paulo win at 52%.
0′Much as we predicted: Sao Paulo was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
1′Much as we predicted: Sao Paulo was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
1′KICK-OFF Sao Paulo v Vitoria
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Matheuzinho · Vitoria
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Sao Paulo 1–0 Vitoria
20′Sao Paulo ahead on 20′ through Jonathan Calleri. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–6
20′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Cacá · Vitoria
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Sao Paulo 1–0 Vitoria · Jonathan Calleri
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Sao Paulo win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
21′Sao Paulo ahead on 20′ through Jonathan Calleri. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–6
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Sao Paulo win: 52% at kick-off, 48% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Sao Paulo win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
24′We published Sao Paulo at 52%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–6
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Gustavo Santana · Sao Paulo
26′We published Sao Paulo at 52%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
36′We published Sao Paulo at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Sao Paulo 1–1 Vitoria · Jonathan Calleri
38′⚽ GOAL · 39' Sao Paulo 1–1 Vitoria · Emmanuel Martínez
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Sao Paulo win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Djhordney Ferreira · Sao Paulo
45′SECOND HALF Sao Paulo 1–1 Vitoria
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sao Paulo · On: Lucas Moura · Off: Djhordney Ferreira
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sao Paulo · On: Marcos Antonio · Off: Lucas Ramon
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria · Emmanuel Martínez
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Vitoria · On: Tomás Pochettino · Off: Lucas Silva
69′⚽ GOAL · 70' Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria · Jonathan Calleri
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sao Paulo · On: Pedro Lima · Off: Gustavo Santana
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Jose Monteiro · Sao Paulo
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Iago Amaral Borduchi · Sao Paulo
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vitoria · On: Anderson Pato · Off: Matheuzinho
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Vitoria · On: Renato Kayzer · Off: Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Vitoria · On: Renato Kayzer · Off: Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sao Paulo · On: Rafael Tolói · Off: Damian Bobadilla
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Renato Kayzer · Vitoria
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Vitoria · On: bruno alex · Off: Emmanuel Martínez
FTFULL TIME Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria
FTSao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria · Sao Paulo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sao Paulo win52%

Draw27%

Vitoria win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:00

Venue · Morumbi

Referee · Lucas Casagrande

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sao Paulo

3-4-2-1

23 Rafael

28 Newton

5 R. Arboleda

35 Sabino

19 Lucas Ramon

16 D. Bobadilla

48 D. Ferreira

12 Iago

37 Artur

43 G. Santana

9 J. Calleri

Coach · Dorival Júnior

Substitutes

31 · Carlos Coronel

32 · Pedro Lima

46 · Pedro Ferreira

29 · Pablo Maia

45 · Lucca Marques Alencar

18 · Wendell

17 · André Silva

7 · Lucas Moura

49 · Ryan Francisco

27 · Victor Sá

8 · Marcos Antônio

2 · R. Tolói

Vitoria

4-1-4-1

1 Lucas Arcanjo

98 Mateusinho

25 Cacá

36 Luan Cândido

83 Jamerson

95 Caíque

33 Erick

6 E. Martínez

10 Matheuzinho

20 Lucas Silva

91 Rene

Coach · Jair Ventura

Substitutes

9 · Alex Bruno

15 · Walace

88 · Zé Vitor

71 · Yuri Sena

26 · Edenilson

7 · Marinho

8 · T. Pochettino

77 · I. Laquintana

79 · Renato Kayzer

2 · E. Brítez

28 · Anderson Pato

23 · Fabrício

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sao Paulo

3-4-2-1

23 Rafael

28 Newton

5 R. Arboleda

35 Sabino

19 Lucas Ramon

16 D. Bobadilla

48 D. Ferreira

12 Iago

37 Artur

43 G. Santana

9 J. Calleri

Coach · Dorival Júnior

Substitutes

31 · Carlos Coronel

32 · Pedro Lima

46 · Pedro Ferreira

29 · Pablo Maia

45 · Lucca Marques Alencar

18 · Wendell

17 · André Silva

7 · Lucas Moura

49 · Ryan Francisco

27 · Victor Sá

8 · Marcos Antônio

2 · R. Tolói

Vitoria

4-1-4-1

1 Lucas Arcanjo

98 Mateusinho

25 Cacá

36 Luan Cândido

83 Jamerson

95 Caíque

33 Erick

6 E. Martínez

10 Matheuzinho

20 Lucas Silva

91 Rene

Coach · Jair Ventura

Substitutes

9 · Alex Bruno

15 · Walace

88 · Zé Vitor

71 · Yuri Sena

26 · Edenilson

7 · Marinho

8 · T. Pochettino

77 · I. Laquintana

79 · Renato Kayzer

2 · E. Brítez

28 · Anderson Pato

23 · Fabrício

Our number · sao paulo winPublished 11 Oct 01:01

52% The market58%

Us52%

~~Market~~58%

We make Sao Paulo a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sao paulo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sao Paulo win	52%	58%	−6
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Vitoria win	22%	17%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	42%	48%	−6
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	72%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−6
Sao Paulo or draw	78%	83%	−5
Sao Paulo clean sheet	42%	–	–
Vitoria clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 9.7 8.1 3.6 1 13.9 12.3 5.3 2 10.4 9.0 3.9 3 5.2 4.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sao Paulo down, Vitoria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,189 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 289 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sao Paulo at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vitoria away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Sao Paulo, 0.87 for Vitoria. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VIT 2–0 SAO · VIT 1–0 SAO · SAO 2–0 VIT · SAO 2–1 VIT

Form · last six in Serie A

SAO PAULO

WWLWLL2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

VITORIA

LLWDLW0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	29	+32	61
2	Palmeiras	29	+27	60
3	Fluminense	29	+12	51
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
6	Bahia	29	+7	46
7	Atletico-MG	29	+5	44
8	Santos	29	+2	42
9	Coritiba	29	−10	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	29	−1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	28	−6	34
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	29	−15	24
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18