Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sao Paulo win at 50%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama
3. 4′Little has changed for our model: Sao Paulo 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
4. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Sao Paulo win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
5. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Artur Victor Guimarães · Sao Paulo
6. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Facundo Colidio · Vasco DA Gama
7. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vasco DA Gama · On: Jose Luis Rodriguez · Off: Paulo Henrique
8. 45′SECOND HALF Sao Paulo 0–0 Vasco DA Gama
9. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sao Paulo · On: Lucas Moura · Off: Luciano
10. 46′We said Sao Paulo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–40–21
11. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Sao Paulo win 37%)
12. 49′HALF-TIME Sao Paulo 0–0 Vasco DA Gama
13. 51′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Vasco DA Gama
14. 53′Vasco DA Gama are down to ten from 51′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 35–45–20
15. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sao Paulo · On: Jose Monteiro · Off: Rafael Tolói
16. 55′We said Sao Paulo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
17. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Gabriel Pereira · Vasco DA Gama
18. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–47–19
19. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Sao Paulo win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
20. 63′We said Sao Paulo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–17
21. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Vasco DA Gama · On: Brenner · Off: Bruno Duarte Da Silva
22. 68′We said Sao Paulo at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
23. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sao Paulo 1–0 Vasco DA Gama
24. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Sao Paulo win: 50% at kick-off, 85% now
25. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Sao Paulo win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
26. 70′68′: Artur Victor Guimarães on the scoresheet for Sao Paulo, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
27. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sao Paulo · On: Pablo Maia · Off: Marcos Antonio
28. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Vasco DA Gama · On: Thiago Mendes · Off: Tchê Tchê
29. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Vasco DA Gama · On: Jair · Off: Santiago Sosa
30. 78′We said Sao Paulo at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
31. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Sao Paulo win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
32. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sao Paulo · On: Gustavo Santana · Off: Jonathan Calleri
33. 85′We said Sao Paulo at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
34. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Sao Paulo · On: Luis Osorio Messias De Oliveira · Off: Artur Victor Guimarães
35. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Vasco DA Gama · On: Adson · Off: Alan Lescano
36. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Iago Amaral Borduchi · Sao Paulo
37. FTFULL TIME Sao Paulo 1–0 Vasco DA Gama
38. FTSao Paulo 1–0 Vasco DA Gama · Sao Paulo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.