Santos v Palmeiras prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SantosDrawPalmeiras

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Palmeiras 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Palmeiras are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santos 29%, draw 26%, Palmeiras 45%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Santos v PalmeirasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Santos win29%

Draw26%

Palmeiras win45%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueEstadio Urbano Caldeira

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santos

Palmeiras

10Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 22 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadores

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
8	Santos	31	+2	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · palmeiras winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market40%

Us45%

~~Market~~40%

We make Palmeiras a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santos v Palmeiras~~1.12 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 45 v 66~~8 v 2

~~The market · Palmeiras win~~40% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Palmeiras win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santos win	29%	31%	−2
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Palmeiras win	45%	40%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	27%	−1
Santos or draw	55%	60%	−5
Santos clean sheet	24%	–	–
Palmeiras clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.9 10.9 8.1 3.9 1 8.4 12.5 8.9 4.3 2 4.8 6.9 5.0 2.4 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santos down, Palmeiras across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,210 Serie A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 310 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santos at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Palmeiras away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Santos, 1.45 for Palmeiras. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–0 PAL · PAL 3–0 SAN · PAL 1–1 SAN · PAL 1–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

SANTOS

WWWDLW2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

PALMEIRAS

DWDWWW0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18