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Santos v Flamengo

Santos

2–2Full time

Flamengo

Serie A · THU 8 OCT · Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Santos win28%

Draw25%

Flamengo win46%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 22:59

Match information

THU 8 OCT · 23:30

Venue · Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Referee · Anderson Daronco

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Santos

4-4-1-1

1 Diogenes

23 Rodinei

4 Lucas Veríssimo

15 Willian Arão

31 Gonzalo Escobar

8 Gabriel Bontempo

48 Gustavinho

28 Christian Oliva

22 Álvaro Barreal

11 Philippe Coutinho

9 Gabriel Barbosa

Coach · –

Substitutes

10 · Neymar

33 · Rony

32 · Benjamín Rollheiser

14 · Luan Peres

34 · João Paulo

81 · Samuel Mendes

18 · Igor Vinícius

30 · Miguelito

25 · Gabriel Menino

45 · Lima

16 · Thaciano

5 · João Schmidt

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

1 Agustín Rossi

22 Emerson Royal

13 Danilo

4 Léo Pereira

26 Alex Sandro

5 Erick Pulgar

21 Jorginho

15 Jorge Carrascal

11 Lucas Paquetá

16 Samuel Lino

9 Pedro Guilherme

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · Saúl Ñíguez

19 · Gonzalo Plata

7 · Luiz Araújo

27 · Bruno Henrique

42 · Andrew

49 · Dyogo Alves

44 · Vitão

51 · Daniel Sales

77 · Johnny Goes

18 · Nicolás de la Cruz

14 · Anthony Valencia

30 · Joaquín Freitas

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Santos

4-4-1-1

1 Diogenes

23 Rodinei

4 Lucas Veríssimo

15 Willian Arão

31 Gonzalo Escobar

8 Gabriel Bontempo

48 Gustavinho

28 Christian Oliva

22 Álvaro Barreal

11 Philippe Coutinho

9 Gabriel Barbosa

Coach · –

Substitutes

10 · Neymar

33 · Rony

32 · Benjamín Rollheiser

14 · Luan Peres

34 · João Paulo

81 · Samuel Mendes

18 · Igor Vinícius

30 · Miguelito

25 · Gabriel Menino

45 · Lima

16 · Thaciano

5 · João Schmidt

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

1 Agustín Rossi

22 Emerson Royal

13 Danilo

4 Léo Pereira

26 Alex Sandro

5 Erick Pulgar

21 Jorginho

15 Jorge Carrascal

11 Lucas Paquetá

16 Samuel Lino

9 Pedro Guilherme

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · Saúl Ñíguez

19 · Gonzalo Plata

7 · Luiz Araújo

27 · Bruno Henrique

42 · Andrew

49 · Dyogo Alves

44 · Vitão

51 · Daniel Sales

77 · Johnny Goes

18 · Nicolás de la Cruz

14 · Anthony Valencia

30 · Joaquín Freitas

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · flamengo winPublished 8 Oct 22:59

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make Flamengo a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santos win	28%	22%	+6
Draw	25%	25%	+1
Flamengo win	46%	53%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	51%	57%	−6
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Santos or draw	54%	47%	+7
Santos clean sheet	21%	–	–
Flamengo clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.8 10.0 7.9 4.2 1 7.4 12.0 9.2 4.8 2 4.5 6.9 5.4 2.8 3 2.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santos down, Flamengo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,184 Serie A matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 284 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.44 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santos at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Flamengo away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Santos, 1.57 for Flamengo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~FLA 3–1 SAN · FLA 3–2 SAN · SAN 1–0 FLA · FLA 1–2 SAN

Form · last six in Serie A

SANTOS

DWWWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

FLAMENGO

LWWWWW1–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	28	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	28	+5	43
8	Santos	28	+2	41
9	Coritiba	28	−6	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	28	+1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	28	−6	34
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	29	−15	24
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Santos

Flamengo

Match statistics

Line-ups

Santos

Flamengo

Head to head

Form · last six in Serie A

The table