Santos v Bahia prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SantosDrawBahia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Santos 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santos 45%, draw 25%, Bahia 29%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Santos v BahiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Santos win45%

Draw25%

Bahia win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:00

RoundMatchday 32

VenueEstádio Urbano Caldeira

RefereeSavio Pereira Sampaio

Line-ups

Santos

4-2-3-1

Bahia

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santos

Bahia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Santos

4-2-3-1

1 Diógenes

23 Rodinei

42 João Alencar

14 Luan Peres

22 Á. Barreal

48 Gustavo Henrique Pereira

8 Gabriel Bontempo

7 Everton

11 Philippe Coutinho

10 Neymar

9 Gabriel Barbosa

Coach · Cuca

Substitutes

17 · G. Caballero

26 · João Paulo Ananias

25 · Gabriel Menino

45 · Lima

28 · C. Oliva

32 · B. Rollheiser

5 · João Schmidt

34 · João Paulo

30 · M. Terceros

33 · Rony

38 · Rafael Gonzaga

18 · Igor Vinicius

Bahia

4-3-3

1 Ronaldo

44 Marcos Victor

33 David Duarte

4 Kanu

46 Luciano Juba

14 Erick

5 N. Acevedo

11 Rodrigo Nestor

99 C. Olivera

9 A. Véliz

16 Erick Pulga

Coach · Rogério Ceni

Substitutes

10 · Éverton Ribeiro

12 · Willian José

7 · Ademir

27 · Everaldo

8 · Caio Alexandre

67 · Wendel Silva

23 · M. Sanabria

3 · Marco Moreno

17 · G. Herrera

77 · Ruan Pablo

15 · M. Araújo

66 · Zé Guilherme

Our number · santos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market52%

Us45%

~~Market~~52%

We make Santos a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santos v Bahia~~1.55 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 45 v 49~~8 v 7

~~The market · Santos win~~52% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santos win	45%	52%	−7
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Bahia win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	61%	−9
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	40%	−10
Santos or draw	71%	75%	−4
Santos clean sheet	30%	–	–
Bahia clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 7.5 4.6 1 9.7 12.0 7.1 2.8 2 7.7 9.1 5.5 2.2 3 4.0 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santos down, Bahia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,213 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 313 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santos at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bahia away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Santos, 1.20 for Bahia. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 25 Oct 00:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BAH 2–2 SAN · BAH 2–0 SAN · SAN 2–2 BAH · BAH 1–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 5 Sept

SANTOS

WWWDLW2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

BAHIA

WWLLWL3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18